PREVIEW
CAPTIVANT has only jumped out once at Flemington where he finished in front of INGRATIATING. He looked quite strong to the line under very little riding and would've improved significantly. Barrier 15 might not be the worst barrier for a 2yo as he won't be stuck inside of horses.
BEACH LAP jumped out on the same day in a different heat with NAPLES AND ZANZIBAR GEM. it was her first jump out and she did it very easily, being well held. The overall time was over one second quicker than CAPTIVANT and the other 2yo heats.... NAPLES jumped out well but BEACH LAP looked to have her covered slightly.
ZANZIBAR GEM looked lost up the straight but closed nicely. She jumped out again on 2 October with ALMIGHTY RISING, she looked much better around a bend and extended nicely. ALMIGHTY RISING was good in behind, not being asked for much of an effort. That was his first jump out, he will take great improvement.
ANAMOE come's out of the Sep 15 Flemington jump out that saw 4 runner's cross the line together, those being him, an un-raced runner, GENERAL BEAU (since 1st and 2nd) and INGRATIATING (since 1st)... fair form. He jumped again on 2 October, finishing second. Overall time was 1 second slower than ZANZIBAR GEM & ALMIGHTY RISING.
FAKE LOVE had EXTREME WARRIOR and SHALAM covered in a Sep 29 jump out and looked very impressive. She was under a hold and hit the line strongly. RED ROCKETSHIP jumped out on the same day and was 0.33s slower, was slightly pushed. FAKE LOVE impressed the most.
HARDWARE LANE jumped out in Sydney and did a lot wrong at the start. Finished okay but prefer to risk.
DARCEANDERMILL has had two nice jump outs at Mornington. He won the second heat, beating the older horses under light riding including WRITTEN CHOICE (84 rated) and the overall time was good, 1 second above average.
TATSURO won a 3yo Cranbourne jump out on Sep 28. He beat the older horses on that occasion although the time was slowest for the day - that was his third jump out. WOLF PRINCE jumped out on the same day but was kept to 2yo company, he was pushed out and didn't seem strong through the line.
BIRD OF DUBAI jumped out twice at Pakenham. She was held behind GUMMY BEAR (9th to INGRATIATING).
OUR NUMBERS
VERDICT
The two horses we'll back are BEACH LAP & FAKE LOVE. FAKE LOVE drawn (1) should get the run of the race. She pinged the machines in her latest jump out so we'd be expecting her to find the rail early and possibly hold it. Her Dam, Anatina, was a speedy mare being Group One placed in the Galaxy. She also comes from the Maher & Eustace stable so she'll be well educated. BEACH LAP I thought was very good for a horse having her first jump out up the Flemington straight. She was well held and looked to have plenty to give. Her jump out form covers most of the field who's trained at Flemington, as she jumped out against NAPLES and ZANZIBAR GEM - ZANZIBAR GEM later beat home ALMIGHTY RISING in a second Flemington jump out (48.36s). That second Flemington jump out was over a full second quicker than ANAMOE (49.8s). Additionally, BEACH LAP ran a full second quicker than the other 2yo heats consisting of CAPTIVANT and INGRATIATING (1st since). BEACH LAP looked to have the others covered to the eye, but NAPLES wasn't disgraced who we thought still trialled quite well considering the time and improvement to come. Besides the top two - and not by much; we thought the rest of the race was very even. If CAPTIVANT and ALMIGHTY RISING drew better, they'd be right in it. Both Price runners EXTREME WARRIOR and RED ROCKETSHIP looked good albeit under riding - at least you know under pressure they have a turn of foot. DARCEANDERMILL looked good at Mornington beating WRITTEN CHOICE, he should get a good run (9) and warrants respect. TATSURO jumped out well on the last two outings, the latest against the older 3yo's so that has to hold a bit more weight. The stable have jumped out many 2yo's and only accepted with this one so he must be respected. ZANZIBAR GEM improved lots from her first jump out, her second was very good and she's from a stable who won this race 4 consecutive times before Tanker last year.
Going with the fillies to beat the colts. Backing both FAKE LOVE and BEACH LAP. Many winning chances.
Happy to take advantage of the bonus bet back promotions for 2nd and 3rd on the different agencies such as TAB, Bet365 and Sportsbet (plus potentially a few more). To win an equal amount, backing FAKE LOVE ($4.40) on one agency and BEACH LAP ($6.50) on another that both have that promotion available.
RESULT / REVIEW
Super win by our top selection in FAKE LOVE ($6.16 / $2.22 SP). She was way too good and easily could've put a bigger margin on the field if she wasn't eased down late. Our third selection, NAPLES, ran a nice race when finishing 3rd at a big Betfair SP of $15.17 / $4.77. Super debut though by FAKE LOVE, she's quite a speedy filly.
#1 ALMIGHTY RISING (10) - M, W & J Hawkes | H Bowman
2yo Bay Colt by FLYING ARTIE from DAWN ALMIGHTY
D.O.B: 15-Nov-2018
Jump Out on 2 October @ Flemington | 800m 48.36s (3rd)
#2 ANAMOE (6) - J Cummings | D Oliver
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by STREET BOSS (USA) from ANAMATO
D.O.B: 16-Nov-2018
Jump Out on 15 September @ Flemington | 800m 47.92s (3rd)
Jump Out on 2 October @ Flemington | 800m 49.80s (2nd)
#3 CAPTIVANT (15) - P & P Snowden | D Lane
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by CAPITALIST from SPEEDBOAT
D.O.B: 05-Sep-2018
Jump Out on 25 September @ Flemington | 800m 48.05s (1st)
#4 DARCEANDERMILL (9) - J Warren & D Krongold | J Kah
2yo Brown Colt by LONHRO from LUCE DEL MARE
D.O.B: 26-Oct-2018
Jump Out on 16 September @ Mornington | 600m 33.40s (2nd)
Jump Out on 30 September @ Mornington | 600m 33.05s (1st)
#5 EXTREME WARRIOR (3) - M Price & M Kent (Jnr) | M Dee
2yo Bay Colt by EXTREME CHOICE from HEART OF THRILLS
D.O.B: 11-Oct-2018
Jump Out on 22 September @ Caulfield | 650m 40.85s (4th) --> link here.
Jump Out on 29 September @ Caulfield | 800m 48.84s (1st) --> link here.
#6 HARDWARE LANE (11) - M Beer | J Mott
2yo Chestnut Colt by SCISSOR KICK from STREET GROOVE
D.O.B: 04-Oct-2018
Jump Out on 25 September @ Randwick | 742m 44.50s (3rd) --> link here.
#7 RED ROCKETSHIP (2) - M Price & M Kent (Jnr) | C Newitt
2yo Chestnut Colt by EXTREME CHOICE from PINK PERFECTION
D.O.B: 30-Sep-2018
Jump Out on 22 September @ Caulfield | 650m 40.43s (1st) --> link here.
Jump Out on 29 September @ Caulfield | 800m 49.17s (1st) --> link here.
#8 TATSURO (7) - T Busuttin & N Young | L Currie
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by MAURICE (JPN) from SISTER SOUSS
D.O.B: 23-Aug-2018
Jump Out on 3 August @ Cranbourne | 600m 36.81s (1st)
Jump Out on 10 August @ Cranbourne | 600m 34.99s (1st)
Jump Out on 28 September @ Cranbourne | 800m 48.23s (1st)
#9 WOLF PRINCE (8) - D Williams | J Benbow
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by TIVACI from LADY LIKE (NZ)
D.O.B: 26-Aug-2018
Jump Out on 14 September @ Cranbourne | 600m 36.32s (2nd)
Jump Out on 28 September @ Cranbourne | 600m 35.47s (3rd)
#10 BEACH LAP (12) - D O'Brien | D Moor
2yo Chestnut Filly by NOT A SINGLE DOUBT from TYCHE
D.O.B: 26-Aug-2018
Jump Out on 25 September @ Flemington | 800m 47.06s (1st)
#11 BIRD OF DUBAI (14) - P Stokes | D Stackhouse
2yo Bay or Brown Filly by PRIDE OF DUBAI from BIRD OF FIRE (NZ)
D.O.B: 17-Sep-2018
Jump Out on 16 September @ Pakenham | 600m 35.86s (4th)
Jump Out on 30 September @ Pakenham | 1000m 1:01.67s (5th)
#12 FAKE LOVE (1) - C Maher & D Eustace | M Zahra
2yo Bay Filly by I AM INVINCIBLE from ANATINA
D.O.B: 31-Jul-2018
Jump Out on 10 September @ Sandown | 600m 36.08s (1st) --> link here.
Jump Out on 29 September @ Caulfield | 800m 48.84s (2nd) --> link here.
#13 NAPLES (14) - J Cummings | J Allen
2yo Brown Filly by STREET BOSS (USA) from ITALY
D.O.B: 10-Sep-2018
Jump Out on 25 September @ Flemington | 800m 47.06s (3rd)
#14 SHALAM (4) - J Moloney | P Moloney
2yo Bay Filly by SHALAA (IRE) from MESMERIZE ME
D.O.B: 21-Sep-2018
Jump Out on 10 September @ Sandown | 600m 36.03s (3rd) --> link here.
Jump Out on 22 September @ Caulfield | 650m 40.74s (1st) --> link here.
Jump Out on 29 September @ Caulfield | 800m 48.84s (4th) --> link here.
#15 ZANZIBAR GEM (5) - T Dabernig & B Hayes | L Nolen
2yo Bay or Brown Filly by WRITTEN TYCOON from DIVINE CHOICE
D.O.B: 27-Sep-2018
Jump Out on 25 September @ Flemington | 800m 47.06s (4th)
Jump Out on 2 October @ Flemington | 800m 48.36s (1st)