Including the two emergencies, we have 11 colts and 7 fillies making up the field. Plenty of rain has come over Friday night and Saturday morning but only got into the Soft5/Soft6 range. A definite query on how each of these 2yo babies will handle a wet track, especially at Moonee Valley which can be testing at the best of times.
TATSURO (7th) comes from the Fake Love race the other week and gets the blinkers on for the first time where he ran the races 5th fastest last 400m and 200m - also has D Oliver taking over from L Currie.
GRINZINGER PRINCE is the other raced runner but didn’t show much on debut at Bendigo on the Heavy9 track. That was behind Butter Blonde and that form ties into a couple runners here from the jump outs. Drawn poorly.
ASTERNISHING has had the three Cranbourne jump outs and was not disgraced without setting the world alight in any of them. He’ll be forward enough but has drawn terribly.
BEAUDACITY has had plenty of jump outs (4 to be exact). Beaten a long way in his August jump outs by TATSURO who now has that race fitness and experience edge as well. Did win the October jump out well and was 2nd on Oct 19 to a raced 3yo gelding who looks alright. Drawn ordinary with barrier 17.
PREDETERMINED beat Butter Blonde in a Flemington jump out, and we know she won well on debut at Bendigo last week for us. RIVER VIEWS was also in this jump out, finishing a distant last and was no match at all.
PREDETERMINED was then 2nd to MORTAL WITNESS in his latest jump out but he looked a lot more composed than the filly who was ridden out on the rail. He was also in front past the line, hitting it with pace. RIVER VIEWS also jumped out earlier on the same day but won his heat in a time 1.77s slower than this heat.
PREDETERMINED is drawn beautifully with barrier 5 while the Lindsay Park gallopers are a little further out with 9 and 10.
SON OF MERCURY won two Caulfield jump outs and has to be respected from the Maher/Eustace stable, especially when Mark Zahra is the jockey on board. THE ART OF FLYING comes form that Sep 10 and was making good late ground before winning his other jump out. Went to the line alongside Prince Amongst Men though, who was 7th of 7 on debut. SNEAKY FIVE comes from the Oct 13 jump out, finishing 2nd but only just and pretty much went toe-to-toe with SON OF MERCURY for the entire heat. Only her first jump out too so plenty of improvement to come.
WOLF PRINCE had the two Cranbourne jump outs, placing in both but those were only over 600m. CAPITAL RAIDER has drawn barrier 1 but didn’t show a ton of gate speed in her jump outs to suggest she can rip to the front.
Only one jump out for GOSSITINO, finishing just in front of HE’S XCEPTIONAL in the fastest time of the day on Monday. She kicked away late in an impressive bit of work and with barrier 4, she can certainly use this to go forward and be a major player. Didn’t see enough from HE’S XCEPTIONAL in the three jump outs to think he could turn the tables on GOSSITINO.
The stablemate TEMPEST CHARM also won a jump out impressively and has only had the one heading into her debut.
This was a tough race with no big stand outs unlike recent weeks. #8, #11, #13, #15 all were close to featuring but with the rain and the tight Moonee Valley track, we have leant to those who have drawn inside and will most likely be on speed.
The Maher/Eustace horses have all drawn really well and the stable has to be respected. SNEAKY FIVE was a $305k purchase and is out of a Group 1 winning mare and has barrier 3. SON OF MERCURY was a $205k buy and is a half-brother to Tanaawol for Lindsay Park and has barrier 6. SNEAKY FIVE we feel had the better of SON OF MERCURY in the jump out though, especially with the improvement to come considering it was only her first - on top selection.
GOSSITINO also only had the one jump out but wow was it good. She clocked a very slick time at Cranbourne and was kicking away late too. Barrier 4 and D Lane on board is a nice combo and is our second pick.
PREDETERMINED should use barrier 5 to his advantage and be in the finish. He’s shown enough to win this and has to be a very good winning and top 3 chance.
Very even race but we are getting some nice odds that allow us to have multiple plays to profit. Again, you're best to place each of these bets with different agencies to make the most of the bonus back offers for finishing 2nd or 3rd just in case (if you can - looks like TAB, Sportsbet and Bet365 all have this offer for Race 2).
We have elected to have a play on our top 3 and using 10 units in total to outlay. If you want to spend $50 on this race, then 1 unit = $5, whereas if you want to spend $20 on this race then 1 unit = $2. Different for everyone.
#14 SNEAKY FIVE - 4.75 units at $4.60
#12 GOSSITINO - 1.75 units at $12.00
#5 PREDETERMINED - 3.50 units at $6.00
Looking to profit 11-12 units overall if either of these three (3) selections win. Easily the toughest 2yo race of the season. Best of luck!
RESULT / REVIEW
A testing Soft7 track but a profitable result for those following the units with SNEAKY FIVE getting the win by 1.25L at $5.90 / $2.46 BSP. PREDETERMINED was 6th by 4.25L while GOSSITINO was disappointing, finishing 12th by 7.05L.
If you followed the staking plan, you would've profited 11.80 units.
If you backed at the Betfair Starting Price, you would've profited 18.00 units (without commission).
Another good result for followers!
#1 ASTERNISHING (16) - Mick Bell | L German
2yo Bay Colt by ASTERN from FONDLE (NZ)
Jump Out on 21 September @ Cranbourne (4th black/white)
Jump Out on 5 October @ Cranbourne (2nd black/white)
Jump Out on 12 October @ Cranbourne (3rd black/white)
#2 BEAUDACITY (17) - T Busuttin & N Young | G Boss
2yo Brown or Black Colt by BRAZEN BEAU from ENCOSTAR
Jump Out on 3 August @ Cranbourne (3rd blue)
Jump Out on 10 August @ Cranbourne (3rd yellow)
Jump Out on 5 October @ Cranbourne (1st yellow)
Jump Out on 19 October @ Cranbourne (2nd yellow)
#3 GRINZINGER PRINCE (15) - J Warren & D Krongold | M Rodd
2yo Bay Colt by MORE THAN READY (USA) from VAVASOUR (NZ)
Jump Out on 16 September @ Mornington (1st)
Jump Out on 30 September @ Mornington (2nd)
#4 HARDWARE LANE (13) - M Beer | J McDonald
2yo Chestnut Colt by SCISSOR KICK from STREET GROOVE
Jump Out on 25 September @ Randwick (3rd) - link
#5 PREDETERMINED (5) - L & T Corstens | J Allen
2yo Bay Colt by HEADWATER from FUTURE GAINS
Jump Out on 2 October @ Flemington (1st black)
Jump Out on 16 October @ Flemington (2nd black)
#6 RIVER VIEWS (10) - T Dabernig & B Hayes | D Stackhouse
2yo Chestnut Colt by WRITTEN TYCOON from SPARKS ALIGHT
Jump Out on 2 October @ Flemington (5th yellow)
Jump Out on 16 October @ Flemington (1st white)
#7 SON OF MERCURY (6) - C Maher & D Eustace | M Zahra
2yo Chestnut Colt by STREET BOSS (USA) from CUPID
Jump Out on 10 September @ Caulfield (1st green) - link
Jump Out on 13 October @ Caulfield (1st blue) - link
#8 TATSURO (12) - T Busuttin & N Young | D Oliver
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by MAURICE (JPN) from SISTER SOUSS
Jump Out on 3 August @ Cranbourne (1st)
Jump Out on 10 August @ Cranbourne (1st)
#9 THE ART OF FLYING (2) - C Maher & D Eustace | J Mott
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by FLYING ARTIE from CANARY
Jump Out on 10 September @ Caulfield (4th blue) - link
Jump Out on 6 October @ Caulfield (1st pink)
#10 WOLF PRINCE (7) - D Williams | J Benbow
2yo Bay or Brown Colt by TIVACI from LADY LIKE (NZ)
Jump Out on 14 September @ Cranbourne (2nd)
Jump Out on 14 September @ Cranbourne (3rd)
#11 CAPITAL RAIDER (1) - C Maher & D Eustace | M Poy
2yo Chestnut Filly by CAPITALIST from MISS TOMB RAIDER
Jump Out on 10 September @ Caulfield (unplaced green) - link
Jump Out on 13 October @ Caulfield (2nd white) - link
#12 GOSSITINO (4) - R Griffiths & M De Kock | D Lane
2yo Bay Filly by PALENTINO from LEICA GOSSIP (NZ)
Jump Out on 19 October @ Cranbourne (1st purple/white)
#13 MORTAL WITNESS (9) - T Dabernig & B Hayes | M Dee
2yo Bay Filly by STAR TURN from MORTAL SIN
Jump Out on 9 October @ Flemington (2nd white)
Jump Out on 16 October @ Flemington (1st yellow)
#14 SNEAKY FIVE (3) - C Maher & D Eustace | J Kah
2yo Bay Filly by FASTNET ROCK from SMALL MINDS
Jump Out on 13 October @ Caulfield (2nd white) - link
#15 TEMPEST CHARM (8) - R Griffiths & M De Kock | L Currie
2yo Grey-Brown Filly by TRUST IN A GUST from MAGIC PULSE
Jump Out on 12 October @ Cranbourne (1st)
#16 HE’S XCEPTIONAL (14) - T Busuttin & N Young | n/a
2yo Brown Colt by XTRAVAGANT (NZ) from SHE'S A DANICA
Jump Out on 7 September @ Cranbourne (unplaced red/white sleeves)
Jump Out on 14 September @ Cranbourne (1st red/white sleeves)
Jump Out on 19 October @ Cranbourne (2nd red/white sleeves)
2yo Chestnut Filly by RICH ENUFF from RAISE UP
Jump Out on 13 October @ Caulfield (1st black) - link