THE TRACK
Sunny in Sydney, expect the track to be a GOOD4 unless some freak showers come along. There won’t be much wind to speak of with an expected westerly wind – gusts only 13km/h so it shouldn’t impact racing much, if at all.
Previous rail was 3m the entire circuit, now being 4m from the 1600m-2000m and 6m the rest of it. Expect this track to be playing really fair, maybe forward of midfield slightly advantaged (As per every meet really). Race-pace and shape will decide where horses are winning from. Get that right and Sydney is hopefully a fill-up.
RACE 2 - POLYTRACK ROMAN CONSUL STAKES
THE MAP
WILD RULER looks the only leader here. OSAMU settles his back. ON THE LEAD is a keen galloper who will probably range up alongside of OSAMU, but I’ve mapped him back a little bit. DOUBTLAND and RED STILETTO are likely pairing off as the last two.
Given this is a small field with only one real leader, I think it’s likely they go pretty slow here. WILD RULER doesn’t like being restrained so he won’t be walking, but nor will he be bolting along.
ADVANTAGED
Given that he likely gets an absolute gift out front, WILD RULER has to be the map horse. I do think OSAMU gets the favours if good enough and, ON THE LEAD, also settles in a nice spot.
DISADVANTAGED
DOUBTLAND and RED STILETTO don’t get any favours getting back to last and second last respectively.
THE PLAY
Think that WILD RULER is my best of the day, and by quite a margin. Easily accounted for OSAMU last start and probably has improvement to come as he was first up, yet still ran a great figure. Only fitter now. DOUBTLAND is the clear danger, however I think he will spot WILD RULER too much of a start and has the inferior turn of foot on a dry ground anyway. Perhaps the X-factor is ON THE LEAD who I think will appreciate a slower run race where he can sit and then sprint, as he shown a nice turn of foot in the past. However, I believe they might be competing for second. Have to be with WILD RULER personally.
RACE 4 - TRESEMME HANDICAP
THE MAP
Interesting race to map, seems to be a question of who actually shows intent. RAPIDO CHAPARRO looks the likely leader to me. I think BADOOSH and WHITE BOOTS from out wide probably have to put themselves in to the race and try to be on speed. QUINTESSA should box seat from her gate. RELUCENT and VEGAS JEWEL then have the barriers to sit off-pace. MIYAKE and ARCHANNA should have the fence – don’t think they’ll be aggressive with ARCHANNA so she can get the 2000m. MAID OF ORE and GET THE IDEA probably their outside. Think the rest will settle any order, but SHE’S IDEEL from her draw will probably be last. Not sure she can press forward and win.
Predicting an even, possibly slow tempo here as I highly doubt anything from the wider gates will be really forcing the issue. Might go a little quick early just to find their order but they will slow it up.
ADVANTAGED
QUINTESSA, box seating gets a peach of a sit on the map. But to me the map horse is VEGAS JEWEL, sitting one or two pairs back in the outside running line. If RAPIDO CHAPARRO gets it easy out front definitely can go all the way and BADOOSH and WHITE BOOTS could get an easy run and should be there about's.
DISADVANTAGED
SHE’S IDEEL to me will get right back and will need a lot to go right, if she were to press forward probably has to work too hard to get a spot anyway. Just don’t like her set up. MIYAKE, ARCHANNA and STAR KAREN also get back along the fence and I feel will have torrid runs trying to weave through the field.
THE PLAY
I’ve settled on VEGAS JEWEL. I have no doubt she settles in the first 4-6 runners from gate 6. She will be ahead of who I see as her main dangers, SHE’S IDEEL and ARCHANNA. Also believe strongly she’s got BADOOSH well covered as last time they faced each other VEGAS JEWEL was off a sharp rise in distance with a platform which did not assist that distance rise. She peaked on her run spotting BADOOSH a big start. This time will be rock hard fit and can turn the tables. Love Tommy Stockdale with the claim, strongly believe he’s the top apprentice in Australia and he will give her a great' steer. I will concede that ARCHANNA could get room and just be too good and she may not be able to get past BADOOSH. Got to back myself in though and bet VEGAS JEWEL.
RACE 5 - HEINEKEN STAN FOX STAKES
THE MAP
Timmy Clark on PELTZER suggests to me that the plan is to lead. I’m pretty convinced that they will show some intent on PRIME STAR who will get to outside leader. JET PROPULSION will take a sit on the outside of GLOBAL QUEST. ACROPHIC will be just behind them with SAMMY likely the last one.
I’m confident that PELTER leads but I feel McEvoy and Berry at least make him earn it. As such, I doubt this will be a proper sit and sprint. Expecting an even tempo maybe slightly above even.
ADVANTAGED
I think that although this will be evenly run, you still don’t want to be too far back. The three here; PELTZER, PRIME STAR and JET PROPULSION are the advantaged runners. GLOBAL QUEST is neutral.
DISADVANTAGED
The last two will be a couple lengths off and will struggle to get past those ahead of them, where the leaders won’t have done much work. Would not want to be ACROPHOBIC or SAMMY here.
THE PLAY
On face value, PELTZER just looks an easy bet. He’s clearly the class runner here and the $2.5, or there about, we are currently getting from him seems to be fair enough. I couldn’t talk you out of him. My main concern is that he’s had 3 proper tough runs and you have to wonder if he’s nearing end of preparation? The horse who I think can beat him is PRIME STAR. First up run where behind DESTINATION who franked the form when he should’ve beaten WILD RULER. Main concern really is the rise from 1200m up to 1500m, but even if his sectionals drop off a little bit, he’s right in this. Honestly think he’s a chance to knock off PELTZER. JET PROPULSION is another talented runner who could give this a shake.
I don’t think I could be against PELTZER in this; however, I struggle to be with him. Although he is facing much easier than the likes of OLE KIRK, NORTH PACIFIC and ROTHFIRE here but I’m not convinced on where he’s at. If I had to bet; main bet PELTZER and saver on PRIME STAR. Will be leaving this alone though.
RACE 8 - BENTLEY ANGST STAKES
THE MAP
Could be a little bit of pace on here. I think MISSYBEEL from out wide presses forward and will be forced by SHOUT THE BAR and POSITIVE PEACE to sit outside leader who I expect will be GREYSFUL GAMOUR. NIMALEE will also be on-pace on the inside of POSITIVE PEACE and SHOUT THE BAR. I’d say ASIAGO finds the fence off-pace and ROCHA CLOCK also finds herself around midfield behind ASIAGO. The rest is a bit of a raffle with none of them really showing any propensity to be forward in run. Think HOUSE OF CARTIER and SCARLET DREAM pair off as do AIR TO AIR and EMERALDS. SAVACOOL will go back and NUDGE, ALL SAINTS’ EVE and YAMAZAKI will be forced to. As I said, the back half of the field could be any order.
With the speed coming mainly from out wide I can see this being a truly run race. Probably closer to a fast tempo than an even one but it won’t be ridiculously run I don’t think.
ADVANTAGED
The map horses to me are POSITIVE PEACE, who won’t have to do too much work to find a spot as the other leaders will take her forward, ASIAGO, NIMALEE and ROCHA CLOCK who have decent draws. SHOUT THE BAR also should find a nice spot and definitely is at an advantage.
DISADVANTAGED
MISSYBEEL will have to do more work than she’d like to not be 3-wid I think she won’t be advantaged. AIR TO AIR, NUDGE, SAVACOOL, YAMAZAKI and ALL SAINTS’ EVE will also be too far back. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR loves setting tempo, so she is neutral. HOUSE OF CARTIER, SCARLET DREAM and EMERALDS are also not hopeless from a map perspective.
THE PLAY
I’m siding with POSITIVE PEACE in this. Absolutely luckless, stuck on the inside last start, and with any room goes close. She got out really late and through the line, was far better than runner-up emeralds, who had the better run and still barely beat POSITIVE PEACE. SHOUT THE BAR also looked like she was walking as POSITIVE PEACE rounded her up. Out to 1600m now is right in her wheelhouse and I think we are getting a great price. Perhaps the main dangers coming out of other races are SCARLETT DREAM who was real solid behind a live Toorak Handicap chance I AM SUPERMAN, however she will need a heap of luck from where I can see her getting to. ROCHA CLOCK should trail POSITIVE PEACE into the race and can win if good enough on the day. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR will find the 1600m a tad sharp 3rd up and she does seem to put in some dud runs 2nd and 3rd up anyway. Think out to 2000m 4th up is when she’s a play, but no this race.
More than happy to bet up with POSITIVE PEACE, think everything is in her favour – looks a great bet.
OTHER RACE COMMENTS
RACE 1 - TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP I see betting in highway handicaps as a bit of a waste of money. I rarely bet into them unless I’ve followed something out of the Sydney trials. If I had to, I’d play this pretty safe with a small bet on AMY’S SHADOW, but happy to leave this one alone.
RACE 3 - DRINKWISE HANDICAP I really want to get this favourite beat (CRIADERAS) and think that BOUND TO WIN is the one to do it. Missed the start several lengths over 1200m last start and was super home. Not really any one to contest the lead so if she can jump, I think she can control it and win. I do think CRIADERAS is a pretty handy horse though so at the current $5 that BOUND TO WIN is I think it’s a little short to take on CRIADERAS. If I got $7+ on the day I’d consider having 2 units on her.
RACE 6 - SILVER EAGLE As the market suggests, this is a 3-horse race. ALLIGATOR BLOOD should just be winning, but at odds-on I’m not sure I can take the price, especially with the 2ndand 3rdelects being very good themselves. DAWN PASSAGE is a very good horse on dry tracks, which he gets Saturday, trials have been underwhelming though. Other horse that can win is SUBPOENAED, maps well and is flying. Can run a big race and upset BLOOD at a price. Can’t play the race, happy to see how the gator is going.
RACE 7 - MOET & CHANNDON SPRING CHAMPION STAKES Market has narrowed this race down to 3 runners; CHERRY TORTONI, LOVE TAP and MONTEFILIA, and I think that’s about right. Myself I think I like the horse that maps the best, CHERRY TORTONI. From gate 4, think he settles midfield or just forward of midfield. He likely puts MONTEFILIA in his pocket and she will have a horrible time searching for gaps. LOVE TAP has a tricky gate, but the right rider to find the lead. There’s a chance they make him work too hard, yet at the same time he might just be too good for them. To me, I feel that CHERRY TORTONI, through the GLENFIDDICH form, is more proven and the one I want to be with. In saying that, I’m not confident enough to bet because I am petrified of LOVE TAP just being that good.
RACE 9 - ANTLER LUGGAGE SPRINT Not often I look at a race and say “no thanks”. Absolute speed fest in this one, it’ll all be coming from out wide too. Interested to see a couple of my money makers (ICONIC STAR and MR MOSAIC) go at each other in the lead, that’s about it though. Will be letting this one through to the keeper.
BETTING STRATEGY
Race 2: WILD RULER (5 units W – BEST BET) - 1st by 2L at a $1.65 / $1.24 Betfair SP.
Race 4: VEGAS JEWEL (2 units W) - 5th by 1L at a $9.07 / $2.74 Betfair SP.
Race 8: POSITIVE PEACE (2 units W) - 10th by 5.4L at a $8.30 / $3.00 Betfair SP.
Total Units Outlay - 9.00 units
Total Units Returned - 8.25 units
Unit Loss at Betfair SP = 0.75 units
Betting Strategy has a max bet of 5 units. 'W' = Win bet, 'P' = Place bet, 'E/W' = Each-Way bet.
Analysis by @Max_Wills_.
Speed Maps provided using Punting Form.