BlackBook - Wednesday, 30 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 30 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
GEELONG - Race 3
#7 KERMACETO (13) - G Begg
Liked the way KERMACETO closed into 3rd place in Heat 11 on Nov 7. Nice first jump out this prep for this 3yo filly, she’s worth monitoring into another jump out.
We mentioned KERMACETO following her Nov 7 jump out where she cruised into 3rd place, the 2nd placed horse being Daimyo who ran a 1.4L 4th on Saturday at Tatura when closing quite smartly from the back. Our filly though was back a the jump outs in Heat 17 on Nov 21, stepping up to 1000m and recording a very slick win. She jumped beautifully, settling just behind the leaders before getting some room in the straight and displaying a lovely turn of foot despite never actually being fully asked for an effort, going to and through the line quite smartly. A 3yo daughter of Kermadec that was a $45k purchase, she looks a lovely mover and we have to be with her on debut.
GEELONG - Race 6
#9 LONSDALEITE settled in a trailing position throughout the run but closed really well over the concluding stages to finish a close 2nd to the talented Ice Pick Nick in Heat 7 on Nov 7 - no blinkers were on either, which he’s worn in his last two starts (after going on when he won his maiden).
Another nice jump out from #9 LONSDALEITE who’s resuming gelded, winning Heat 4 on Nov 14 to back up his close 2nd placing on Nov 7. Again, he had no blinkers on so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re on first up.
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Geelong, Race 3
#7 KERMACETO (13) - G Begg
Medium. *SCRATCHED AT THE GATES*
She's looked quite talented at the jump outs and we're expecting a nice debut here, but the draw certainly won't give her any favours. This is an even race and if she had of drawn a touch better, she would've been a really good bet - that draw is the issue and it might be a bit too much to overcome.
Happy to have a bet on her still, she should still be running well. Going ½ now at $7.50 and other ½ on SP as she likely gets out due to that barrier query.
Geelong, Race 6
#9 LONSDALEITE (8) - C McDonald
Blake Shinn is on this now-gelding and he is absolutely airborne at the moment so from a nice draw from those nice JO's (without the blinkers too), happy to ½ stake him and bet.
This is an even race with plenty of chances though - the favourite in Sonora has never ran under 1200m and her wins are over 1300m and 1463m, so the 1100m first up here is a slight query.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Geelong, Race 2
#7 MIGHTY SAPPHIRE (8) - M Moroney
Had him noted down following a Oct 21 jump out where he just cruised to the line. He then jumped out on Nov 11 alongside Imasuperstar, who won first up for us on debut (which forced us to go back to watch this jump out again and see him).
He ran super on debut on a Heavy9 track when 4th over 1108m to Meridius where he clocked the 7th fastest L400m and 6th fastest L200m of the meeting when coming from the back.
He gets a Good track here and the 1200m certainly suits, plus stable is flying at the moment (SR of 20% for L50 runners).
We were on Whitten on debut and he was disappointing, but does get blinkers on here so expect improvement and if he gets out in price, might be worth a small saver for our mental health.
Bet: backing Mighty Sapphire for ½ stake and happy to do so at the $3.40 available.
Geelong, Race 4
#7 BEST LIFE (4) - T Dabernig
Gosford, Race 7
#11 ALWAYS IN (14) - K Waugh
Watchlist trial comments:
ALWAYS IN has talent but her starts are horrible. She missed the kick by a good 3-4L in her first trial on Nov 7 at Wyong over the 1000m but somehow managed to close off and win up the inside. She was away better in Trial 10 on Nov 21 but was still a clear last in the early stages and then again closed off superbly up the inside to finish 5th (less than 1L off 2nd) but if you watch past the line, she gets up alongside the winner despite going down by over 4L. Very hard to trust her considering her starts, but her trials have been good.
No bet recommended - from that barrier with those manners, she'll be near last and have to fly home, so it's a low percentage play. Happy to leave her unless she gets out to a big price late.
We tipped Kissing Supido where she was SCR at the gates the other week too, but just not sure on her here.
Last Updated: 8:08am on Wednesday, 30th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1072x runners | 258x winners (24%) & 294x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.03 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 70x runners | 29x wins (41%) & 18x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 62x runners | 11x wins (18%) & 22x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):