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BlackBook - Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 3 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2

#7 SIERRA DE GREDOS (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Super bit of work from the un-race SIERRA DE GREDOS in Heat 7 on Apr 17, the 3yo gelding settling last throughout but closing superbly down the middle of the track as he was put under pressure, taking ground off Our Playboy who skipped away to a bit of a lead but he was quickly eating that up late over the 1000m. Unsure which one he was in his Apr 11 jump out as there are no silks, but if he’s the outside as the results suggest, he was well held and cruised there. A son of Almanzor, you won’t see many maiden’s take ground off a horse of Our Playboy’s calibre so a super bit of work and a gelding we want to follow.


A third jump out now for SIERRA DE GREDOS and would expect him to be hard to beat wherever he goes. We were very keen to follow him following his Apr 17 jump out where he finished 2nd to Our Playboy but was making very good ground late. He was away well in Heat 8 on Apr 24 but was restrained in the early stages to take up a trailing position out the back, doing his best work in the straight as he got the gaps and extended when asked, closing over the top of the leaders to win over the 1000m in average time for the morning. Expect to see this son of Almanzor over 1400m first up and getting over further the deeper he gets into the prep and think we can follow him.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Warrnambool, Race 2

#7 SIERRA DE GREDOS (3) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

He looks primed for his debut following three jump outs with the two most recent over 1000m and really nice bits of work, as we've highlighted. He really can't do much more ahead of his debut and we can't really ask for more from a debutant.

He handled the Heavy in his first two jump outs this prep, the JO against Our PlayBoy being on the Heavy so the conditions today should be okay, but obviously still a query on raceday.


He's drawn nicely here with barrier 3 (post-scr) with Dean Yendall taking the ride, so on the back of those jump outs in a winnable race, he's the one to beat and we're happy to be with him.

The Wilde stable love the Bool so it's obvious that Actaeon is the main danger but he's only had 1x JO so was happy to risk (although, he would've been set for this race and likely done heaps of work behind the scenes).


If you're on early, it's $0.19 deds so the $4+ comes down to ~$3.25, which is a nice price still.

He's $2.60 this morning and think the ~$2.50 is about the right price in these conditions.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Warrnambool, Race 1

#2 LOOSE ON GIN (7) - M Williams

BlackBook jump out comments:

LOOSE ON GIN was solid on debut when leading and was good again in Heat 7 on Apr 24 over the 1000m in similar circumstances, but kicking away late to hold on and win in nice time for the morning. He was 2nd on debut to Tumbling who then ran 4th in a Group 3 in NSW, which is nice form on the board and think wherever he goes second up, he will likely lead and be competitive.

Warrnambool, Race 1

#5 SCENTIFY (8) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook jump out comments:

SCENTIFY was the one to take from Heat 6 on Mar 29, the 2yo colt stalking the speed throughout before checking off heels to the outside and closing really nicely over the top. Lovely jump out from this son of Justify.

Last Updated: 7:45am AEDT on Wednesday, 3rd May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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