BlackBook - Wednesday, 29 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 29 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MORNINGTON - Race 1
#5 PLACE OF GOLD (11) - C Brown
PLACE OF GOLD was the pick of Heat 1 on Aug 9, travelling under a hold to the line after being untested in a Jul 20 Pakenham Synthetic jump out too.
PHASE TWO showed his speed again, finishing 2nd in Heat 8 on Aug 30. He’s going to take some catching on debut, but it was the winner who ran over him, PLACE OF GOLD, who looks like he might have a bit of talent. He sat just outside Phase Two, travelled comfortably throughout and then showed a really nice turn of foot under the hands and heels of D Lane to come over the top to win.
Several nice jump outs now for the 3yo colt PLACE OF GOLD but they’ve all been some time apart. His win in Heat 6 on Dec 22 marked his third trial or jump out win, jumping cleanly to take up the lead and never looked like being beat as he gave a kick around the bend, winning in the third fastest time of the morning. He’s also looked talented in his official trials on Aug 9 and Aug 30, where we mentioned him after both of these trials. Hoping he gets to the races now this preparation, he can certainly give a maiden a shake on debut.
MORNINGTON - Race 2
#9 EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC (7) - S Nichols
The form from EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC’s debut run is unbelievable. 1st Canadian Gold came out and ran 6th and 3rd in town while there were subsequent winners all around her being 2nd Madagascar Miss (won by 3.5L), 3rd Arroance (then went 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd) and 5th Madame Bolli (then went 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st). Now a 4yo, the mare jumped beautifully in Heat 6 on Aug 19, bounced to the lead along the rail and travelled super to the line as she held off the race fit and recent BM70 winner Diesel ’n’ Dust while not being asked for an effort at all. She’s got a friendly racing pattern, will lead or sit on speed and expect her to go very well first up. Watch for another bit of work first.
We mentioned EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC after a jump out way back on Aug 19 where the 4yo mare then had an official trial on Sep 13 behind a talented The Billionaire but she was then put away. She returned in Heat 7 on Dec 15 to win ahead of much better than maiden grade horses in Curran and Evening Glory but did clock the slowest of the 750m heats for the morning, which is slightly concerning. Regardless, she’s got super form from her debut 4th and looks to have returned in nice order again. Expect to see another bit of work before she resumes, but certainly one we need to watch.
#2 JEFFERSON was only having his first jump out as a 4yo gelding but he might have some talent, especially looking at his breeding. His debut jump out saw him jump straight to the front in Heat 5 on Dec 15 and give nothing else a chance, winning comfortably. Breeding wise, he’s a full-brother to Top Prospect (Group 2 placed in NZ over 1400m and a HCP winner at Doomben) as well as a half-brother to Charlestown (Group 2 placed in NZ with a record of 6-1:2:3) and he was a $150k NZ Karaka purchase himself. Certainly need to keep an eye on this gelding.
OTHER RUNNERS AROUND AUS
Gosford, Race 1 - TWILIGHT AFFAIR
Nov 23 (Randwick) - she will go to the front on debut and be very hard to beat - three trials now, the latest two over 1000m+ and both of them nice wins, even her first over 742m was a nice win - won’t be short of fitness and can trust the stable - follow.
NOTE: we were on debut and she should've won but wondered in the straight and got nabbed late to finish 2nd. Should be better for the run now second up.
Gosford, Race 6 - SING A LOVE SONG
Dec 14 (Rosehill) - he dropped straight to the back, cruised up around the bend and then through the field in the straight before getting a couple of asks and closing super to finish 2nd - super trial following a solid trial on Nov 30 and he looks ready to go back to the races.
NOTE: was hoping for a maiden first up but he resumes in the Listed Gosford Guineas instead and is a massive $71.
Mornington, Race 1
Barrier 11 of 11 was far from ideal for PLACE OF GOLD, but this is a very winnable maiden on debut at the home track and he does come in to barrier 8 after scratchings.
KEPPEL BAY brings in the clear best last start rating at +3.3 with the next best at +8.5, being MANHATTAN MAN and PACK OF WOLVES.
This is a two horse race between PLACE OF GOLD and KEPPEL BAY and we're going to back in our BlackBook runner to get the job done on debut at the home track. Certainly glad we stayed out of early markets as the $2.80 would be $1.86 this morning. We can now play the ~$2.40 for a medium/high confidence play. Wouldn't surprise to see him jump favourite.
Mornington, Race 2
Disappointed that a few of our runners all meet each other here. EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC brings in the best last start rating at +3.5 with some super form from his debut run - he's jumped out super and will go well here.
JEFFERSON's jump out was super and he has some nice breeding behind him, but he has only had the one jump out ahead of his debut here so it's hard to get a real gauge. The booking of Damien Thornton is certainly positive.
We were on INNER SPIRIT first up and he was a beaten $1.60 favourite... he had every chance there though and comes here second up with barrier 11 of 12. John Allen jumps on board while Jamie Kah jumps aboard the debutant JAMESATELLI for Clayton Douglas, who has jumped out well enough to run well as well.
We played EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC in the early markets at $17 on Bet365 (now $15.81 after deductions) or $15 on TAB (now $13.05 after deductions). Lovely price with her now at $8-$9 where a win will net us a 9+ unit profit. If you haven't played, think the $8+ is around the minimum price. She can give a good sight here, although we would've preferred 1100m or so, rather than the 1200m as the last 100m is going to be the concern.
With barrier 1, JEFFERSON can go forward like his jump outs and be hard to chase. It's hard to get a gauge on him though as he's only had the one jump out and it was a Geelong, which can be hard to trust at times. We'll leave him and have just the bet on EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 3.25 units.
Mornington, Race 1
PLACE OF GOLD ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.45 (TopSport) or $2.40 (Bet365) / $2.30 (TAB)
Mornington, Race 2
EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC ~ 0.75 units WIN @ $17.00 (Bet365) or $15.00 (TAB) (as at 6:55pm, Monday)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +27.67 units at Recommend Price | +54.20 units at Betfair SP
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