BlackBook - Wednesday, 28 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 28 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


ROSEHILL - Race 2

OTHER

We mentioned #11 PUNGO after his Sep 6 win where he led from start to finish under minimal pressure, clocking the second fastest 900m time of the morning in the process. The 3yo colt put together another lovely trial, taking out Trial 12 on Sep 20 over 900m but clocking slow time for the morning. The son of So You Think jumped beautifully but was restrained early to take a sit just off the leader and once they got into the straight where he settled, he just sampled up with ease and got over the top under no pressure. Being by So You Think out of a Lonhro mare, suspect he will get over some distance but he’s just won these trials in first gear, encouraging signs.


#15 CALL DI was a bit of a hidden gem, finishing 2nd in Trial 8 on Sep 20 but it was the way in which she finished that caught the eye. The 3yo daughter of Frankel jumped almost the best of the field but was ridden with no urgency to drop back to near last, which she didn’t like as she threw her head around a bit. Once she settled, she put the head down and powered to the line, getting an interrupted run but showing a lovely turn of foot when put under pressure and her best work was past the line as she continued to extend and was in front comfortably. She’s out of Samantha Miss, the winner of multiple Group 1’s including the Champagne Stakes, Flight Stakes and Oaks, so certainly very well bred being by Frankel as well and she looks talented.


SANDOWN - Race 6

OTHER

#6 STARSPANGLED BABY trotted in Heat 3 on Sep 7 over the 1000m, recording the third fastest time of the morning in the process and doing it with ease. Not sure she’s a betting proposition first up as she tends to be better deeper into her prep and with more distance, so maybe more one to follow second or third up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Rosehill, Race 2

Super debut run from PEREILLE who's now second up with the blinkers going on for the first time. His trials were superb prior to the debut and he's our top pick here. GOLDEN AGE is another with a chance on debut.


Not our favourite approach, but it's too hard to split them. We're playing PEREILLE ($3.50) with savers on PUNGO ($8) and CALL DI ($7) - expecting one of these three win to win.

#11 PUNGO (1) - C Waller

Low/Medium.

See above.

#15 CALL DI (11) - G Ryan & S Alexiou

Low/Medium.

See above.

Cranbourne, Race 6

#6 STARSPANGLED BABY (9) - S Trolove

Low.

We were with her on Sunday at Sandown because she was $301/$81. At a lower price here, we're not keen to be with her - monitor if she gets out to a massive price late, but not expecting her to win first up here.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Cranbourne, Race 2

#3 GULF OF GUINEA (5) - B & JD Hayes

​Our boy is second up here after a bit of a disappointing run first up at Moe but he had excuses - he was wide, held up and even got a whip to the face so all things considering, he did alright to finish 6th. The winner (Our Redente) has since won a 0-64 and even Arctic Charlie (7th) has since ran 2nd.


He did track work with Extreme Step on Sep 16, who then won a BM64 at Pakenham on Thursday night.

He will also be much improved now second up after that long lay off and stepping up to 1400m suits more than the 1200m.


Certainly concede the favourite looks the top pick, but our boy had excuses and he will be much improved here. Barrier 5 is perfect, expect Blake Shinn to be positive and he can run a really nice race.

Last Updated: 8:4am on Wednesday, 28th September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

1000x runners | 235x winners (24%) & 275x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.32 WIN $3.04 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB