BlackBook - Wednesday, 23 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 23 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SANDOWN - Race 1
#2 MUGEN (3) - C McDonald
Expected MUGEN to head over to Hong Kong following a very impressive Feb 28, but very glad to see him still here in Aus as a 4yo gelding (for now anyway). The son of Deep Field was back at the jump outs to record a solid win in Heat 8 on Nov 7, travelling very well throughout with cover before edging back to the inside and getting up to win ahead of Sonora. A $160k buy, this was a lovely first jump out back and quite keen to follow him into his upcoming prep.
MUGEN is very smart, simple as that. We mentioned him last week following his Nov 7 win and he left nothing to the imagination this week in Heat 6 on Nov 14, recording a dominant 3L+ win on past winners in Piaggio and Vassilator. This was quite a dominant win - he showed nice gate speed but elected to drop back to take a sit on the leaders who snuck a bit of a break around the bend but the Heavy track was no worries for this gelding as he went bang in the straight with absolute ease. They don’t win much more impressively than this and he did record the fourth fastest time of the morning, so the substance is there too. Would be surprised if he doesn’t head over to Hong Kong now but if he does debut here, very keen to be with him.
Another nice bit of work from #3 TRIUMPHANTLY, finishing 2nd in Heat 8 on Nov 16 to Mobamba to back up his 2.5L win on Nov 7 and like that this was over 1200m following a 1000m trial, so he will certainly be forward enough when he does resume. He’s still an entire and as a 4yo heading into his second career preparation, he looks to be in good order and certainly has the talent to win a maiden, so look for 1400m first up on the back of these.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Sandown, Race 1
#2 MUGEN (3) - C McDonald
Quite surprised he's in Aus instead of HK but we're not complaining. His jump outs have been nothing short of super and he looks like a really nice horse. He's jumped out on Good, Soft and Heavy, so no queries on the track. Drawn beautifully with barrier 3 and this isn't a race with any standouts, especially after Italian Viking came out. Very happy to be with him here, think he just wins and we'll see a smart one debut.
Playing ½ now (~$2) and ½ at the SP. Keen.
#3 TRIUMPHANTLY (6) - S Hasan
Unfortunately he's going to run into one better here in Mugen but also think he needs further than 1200m - can't be backing him over Mugen (maybe a saver) but want to watch him and follow second up over ~1400m.
Last Updated: 7:38am on Wednesday, 23rd November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1064x runners | 256x winners (24%) & 291x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.08 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 37x runners | 24x wins (65%) & 7x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 57x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 20x placings (51%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):