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BlackBook - Wednesday, 21 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 21 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


BENDIGO - Race 5

OTHER

In a very encouraging performance, #13 SUNZOU led and went toe to toe with The Big Heist in Heat 16 on Sep 5, holding him off late to record a nice victory over the 990m. There were big expectations on this colt prior to his debut, but he was very disappointing although pulling up lame and subsequently spelled immediately. If he can live up to the talent he’s shown at the trials and jump outs, he certainly has wins in him so we have to keep an eye on where this colt pops up this prep, especially if Ben Melham sticks.


CANTERBURY - Race 1

OTHER

#5 SHOHEI certainly has a maiden win in her at the very least. She was 2nd on debut with a 3L gap to Mirra View in 3rd, that galloper then winning her next two starts (MDN and BM64), before heading to VIC where she started a $2.20 favourite but was beaten a long way in 3rd but we did see 4th, 5th and 6th all win their next starts and she beat them by 2.25L+. She came from last in her first trial on Aug 23, but her work in Trial 13 on Sep 6 saw Pike take her straight to the front and show she was way too good for them. She was challenged late but she kicked away again and did some of her best work past the line in a very encouraging performance. Follow her into a maiden first up now as a 4yo mare.

 
TELEGRAM CHAT

We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!

Follow the steps below:

1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org

2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1

3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9


BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 5

#13 SUNZOU (1) - S Nichols

High.

Ben Melham has no rides this week (not sure if he's been suspended) so we have Ethan Brown taking the ride, who's a more than capable replacement. This colt has drawn beautifully to make a winning return - need Ethan to be positive from barrier 1 to get him leading along the rail and if so, he'll be hard to beat. Keen on him here.

There is a bonus back for 2nd and 3rd on TAB (up to $50).

Canterbury, Race 1

#5 SHOHEI (4) - M, W & J Hawkes

Medium.

She started $2.60 and then $2.20 in her two career starts last preparation, so the $4+ here looks good value especially considering she has trialled well ahead of her return as well. Hoping W Pike isn't negative and sits midfield at worst - if so, she should get every chance to win and looks a nice bet.

There is a bonus back for 2nd and 3rd on TAB (up to $50).

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bendigo, Race 3

#7 BEOUR BAY (2) - A Alexander

Still convinced she should've won last start when 2nd to Nijiko, who then ran 3.65L off a BM70 at Sandown last week. Miss Moonshine was 4th, with her since winning a MDN by 6L while No Rain No Flowers (5th) since ran 3rd. Very good form race and she obviously ran 3rd to What You Need (Coolmore favourite) and Lascars (won on Sat) first up as well, gapping Spring Valley in 4th by 3.5L who then defeated Artzino at her next start (subsequent winner at Sandown).


Zac Spain heads to Bendigo for the one ride on this mare and she looks well placed (again) to be breaking her maiden. Backing her again... she owes us!!

Going to play her close to the jump though as don't think she gets backed in - might be able to get ~$4+.


There is a bonus back for 2nd and 3rd on TAB (up to $50).

Last Updated: 8:10am on Wednesday, 21st September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

991x runners | 231x winners (23%) & 273x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.39 WIN $3.05 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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