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BlackBook - Wednesday, 21 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 21 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

#13 FRETTA closed well behind Maseratie Bay in Heat 16 on Dec 5. The 3yo daughter of Frankel was stepping up to 1200m here where she found herself a clear last in the early stages but closed super as she weaved her way through the field. She did similar in her first jump out over 1000m on Nov 28, settling last and just going through the motions as she cruised to the line but made up a lot of ground. Huge watch on this filly, likely on debut at 1400m but especially as she gets out further.


WARWICK FARM - Race 2

OTHER

OTI bought #8 STEP ASIDE following a lovely NZ trial win back on Oct 14. Now in Australia, he’s brought his winning trial form with him as he won a Nov 29 trial nicely before winning Trial 14 on Dec 8. The time was slow for the morning, which is a slight query, but like the way he stuck the head out and responded to a bit of urging from Tommy Berry. Monitoring where he pops up on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 1


#13 FRETTA (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Low/Medium.

She's a northern hemisphere 3yo, foaled in March 2020 so still a 2yo and she's first up at 1500m while taking on some race fit 4yo's from barrier 1 with a bit of a get back and run on style from the JO's, so it's going to be a big ask on debut to win this but she seems talented enough to go very close to doing so.


Choquant arguably should've won last start when a $2 SP favourite, finishing 5th where 2nd and 4th have since own. He's the one to beat and finding it hard to be backing our filly over him.


Not keen on backing her in this race, it's just a low % play considering those queries and at $3.80. If she gets out (which we expect she will), maybe a small play but think Choquant is the one to beat so would prefer to be on him and saving on Fretta - no bets for us.

Warwick Farm, Race 2

#8 STEP ASIDE (6) - C Waller

High.

Love seeing J-Mac on board having ridden him in his first trial, especially when Waller has the second favourite in the market who he also beat in his latest trial, Ocean Honour. The remainder of the field don't have the upside he has and happy to risk today.


He looks to be the clear one to beat and in saying that, he should be very hard to beat. Playing the SP and hoping to sneak $2+ late.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sandown, Race 2

#3 CRAFT STAR (2) - A Noblet

BlackBook jump out comments:

Super win by CRAFT STAR in his second career jump out, taking out Heat 7 on Dec 9 impressively. The 3yo Starcraft colt sat at the back of the field before really getting going around the bend, coming out wide and powering home down the middle of the track to win very comfortably while being given a relatively easy time. He had a jump out back on Oct 27 that was won in similar circumstances, again coming down the middle of the track to win well. A $45k buy, he’s a nice moving colt that likely has another jump out before debuting.


No bet recommended.

Sandown, Race 2

#9 SASSY ANNA (10) - M, W & J Hawkes

BlackBook jump out comments:

SASSY ANNA was only fair in her Dec 2 jump out, but took improvement into Heat 1 on Dec 9, cruising to and through the line when finishing 2nd to Naboo Star, albeit in the slowest time for the morning. She’s got lovely form from her debut now too, finishing 2nd to Shalaman by only 0.8L where she clocked the 5th fastest L200m of the meeting. Now a 3yo filly, she looks to have come back improved but her first jump out and slow time here has us cautious, so one to monitor.


No bet recommended.

Happy Valley, Race 5

#5 HAPPY GOLF (4) - F Lor

BlackBook jump out comments:

CROTON RIVER was a big winner back on Jan 17 over 1000m, but there hasn’t been a real lot of form come out from behind him so a query on who he beat. He had a little freshen up prior to this official trial in Heat 18 on Feb 7, closing well under some heavy riding but holding his own against the likes of Barb Raider where they clocked a very slick time for the 1000m. Always tread carefully around the Price Bloodstock horses as they do target the trials and jump outs, but think this gelding can be one to follow into a maiden.


No bet recommended.

Happy Valley, Race 7

#6 KA YING GLORIOUS (12) - D Hayes

BlackBook jump out comments:

MOUNT HOTHAM led from start to finish in Heat 10 on Mar 25, holding off a fast finishing Succeed Indeed to record a nice win under a strangle hold throughout. The 3yo gelding had a previous jump out on Mar 18 but he was no match for some previous winners in Inebriating, Horrifying and Helmiton, who are all better than maiden grade. We mentioned him after an official trail win back on Jul 12 where he won over 1200m by 3.5L following Jun 25 and Jul 2 jump outs - that trial win was won in 1:17.21s that was almost 2s quicker than the other 1200m trial that day, won by Dark Dream who was a winner of the Group 1 QLD Derby, so a super bit of work. He didn’t make it to the track then but he’s come back here in super order and will be one we follow into debut where he looks to have a friendly on speed racing pattern.


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 7:46am on Wednesday, 21st December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1103x runners | 268x winners (24%) & 302x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 42x runners | 25x wins (60%) & 11x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 81x runners | 34x wins (42%) & 21x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 77x runners | 16x wins (21%) & 24x placings (52%)

Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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