BlackBook - Wednesday, 15 June 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 15 June 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
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SANDOWN - Race 1
Impressive from the 2yo filly #3 STARIANNE. She was likely out sprinted in her first jump out on May 16 over 800m behind Mogulist (since 3rd in MDN) but when she stepped up to the 1000m in Heat 14 on May 30, she was super and showed a tremendous turn of foot over the concluding stages to win with ease. She’s a half-sister to Aravene, who has 3x career wins from 6x starts with the most recent of those coming over 2000m last week at Rosehill (as well as currently being the $4.80 second favourite for the QLD Oaks this weekend), so we can expect this filly to also get over a bit of a distance, as shown by her jump outs too. One to follow first up and deeper into the prep as she steps up in distance. Maybe a Oaks horse as a 3YO towards the end of the year?
SANDOWN - Race 8
#1 HERE TO SHOCK was under the most ridiculous hold all throughout the early stages of Heat 3 on May 18, before finally being allowed to stride out in the straight and extending nicely, getting Mr Pickwick on the line to record a pretty easy win despite the small margin. It was the slowest of the 1100m heats, but this will tick him over nicely for his return to the races now.
Confidence - Comments
Sandown, Race 1
#3 STARIANNE (1) - T Busuttin & N Young
Think she's the one to beat but sub-$2 is hard to take for a debutant on a Heavy track.
Look for a drift closer to the jump and play her then - having a bet, but stake down due to the track uncertainty.
Sandown, Race 8
#1 HERE TO SHOCK (8) - B Stanley
He's a smart horse and he's been gelded, so expecting a big return - just need D Oliver to take him forward and he should be winning this. Had Mr Pickwick covered easily in his latest JO who has since won a BM70. Always had a high opinion of him and he's better than BM70 grade.
Last Updated: 8:42am on Wednesday, 15th June 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
665x runners | 199x winners (30%) & 210x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.31 WIN $2.31 PLC
841x runners | 189x winners (22%) & 229x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.09 WIN $3.13 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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