BlackBook - Wednesday, 14 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 14 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
SANDOWN - Race 1
#7 LOTTWON (15) - B Brisbourne
Ben Brisbourne might have a really nice colt on his hands in LOTTWON. He won a pair of jump outs on Apr 29 and May 11 before a spell and returning on Aug 22 for a lovely bit of work where we had to mentioned him. We were hoping he went a bit under the radar, but following his slick 990m win in Heat 15 on Sep 5 where he clocked the second fastest time of the morning under the guidance of Craig Williams, there is no doubt that everyone will now be all over this colt on debut. The 3yo son of Belardo was a $320k purchase from NZ and looks to have a really nice turn of foot, as shown here over the final 200m or so as he burst away. He looks smart.
Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr might unveil another smart 3yo in #11 THE DEPUTY with the Nicconi colt winning Heat 14 on Aug 29 with ease over the 1000m in his third jump out this preparation. He was very quietly ridden in Aug 15 and Aug 22 jump outs before the blinkers went on in this heat where he led from the inside barrier before being put under pressure in the straight where he opened up a gap on the field quite comfortably before being put away over the concluding stages. A $260k purchase, he looks a nice moving colt and look for those blinkers being on for his debut.
WARWICK FARM - Race 2
#3 PEREILLE (4) - J Cummings
Godolphin have a smart 3yo colt in PEREILLE on their hands. He’s a well bred Fastnet Rock colt out of the Group performed mare Monthegur that makes him a half-brother to the Street Boss mares Siege and Heresy. For those watching ‘The Early Bird’ show we’re doing with Dean Watling, he mentioned this colt after his Aug 5 trial over 813m where he dropped to the back of the field and cruised to the line out wide. His work in Trial 13 on Aug 22 was even better, getting a lovely trail throughout the heat where he again closed super, this time into 2nd place where he did his best work past the line with the winner clocking the second fastest 800m time of the morning. James McDonald was on here, so would love for him to stick on debut where we’d expect him to be hard to beat. He’s been trialling super.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Sandown, Race 1
#7 LOTTWON (12) - B Brisbourne
Big fan of this colt and expecting a big debut here. The barrier is a slight worry, but Craig Williams is on board and we'll be hoping he goes forward rather than back. Expecting him to win this and very keen to be backing him.
#11 THE DEPUTY (6) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
Unfortunately, think he just runs into a really smart one here in LOTTWON. The first two JO's were iffy while the latest with blinkers was a nice bit of work. He looks the quinella horse with LOTTWON.
Warwick Farm, Race 2
#3 PEREILLE (4) - J Cummings
Assuming James McDonald had the choice of who he would ride here. He rode GREAT BARRIER REEF last start and trialled on ENUENDO, but it's no surprise to see him stick with PEREILLE following his trials.
Expect ON THE BEACH to go forward from Barrier 16, but it'll take a big performance to win from there.
PEREILLE on top, especially from barrier 4 with James McDonald on board with those trials under his belt, expecting a winning debut and we'll be backing him.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sandown, Race 6
#12 VICTORIA ROC (13) - A & S Freedman
Her official trial on Aug 8 was absolutely super - we mentioned her in our review and from there she went to Bendigo on Aug 25 and was $7 into $2.30 before being scratched on race morning. She headed back to the jump outs and again cruised to the line, having her primed for her Aus debut here - she's the top selection for this race and a must have for the Quaddie.
Happy Valley, Race 2
#5 HOODABUTTA (6) - D Hayes
He jumped out in Aus under HOODABUTTA, with our Weekly Review notes as follows:
Four jump outs and trials now for HOODABUTTA, this clearly his most impressive as he bolted in Heat 6 on Dec 15 to win by 4L over the 950m. He jumped well, pushed forward to lead along the rail where he was put under some pressure approaching the turn but kicked away and really responded to some slight urgings by the jockey before being put away over the concluding stages. He won a jump out on Nov 22 over 800m just ahead of Dunkerry (since 3rd in MDN) with a little gap back to 3rd prior to stepping up to 1000m and winning again on Dec 6. He’s out of a mare that won 6 races along with 13 places in 29 starts, so she was very consistent and won a few in town in SA. He certainly looks to have enough talent to be running well in a maiden on debut.
Last Updated: 7:58am on Wednesday, 14th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
683x runners | 207x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.24 WIN $2.30 PLC
982x runners | 227x winners (23%) & 271x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.45 WIN $3.06 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):