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BlackBook - Wednesday, 14 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 14 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

We were a big fan of #6 RACKERMANN post his 1000m trial win on Nov 7, but his work in Heat 9 on Nov 18 was a bit different and quite interesting. He was clearly last out of the gates and beaten for speed early while the leader kicked away and really got them rolling along when running the second fastest heat of the morning. This 3yo gelding was clearly out of his comfort zone and not suited to a fast run 800m jump out, off the bit for most of the early stages and struggling to keep up, but once he finally and caught up with them, he was actually really good past the line and even caught up with the leader/winner. He’s by Impending who won both of his Group 1’s over 1350m while his mum was a Group 3 winner over 1400m/1600m, so he looks as though he’ll be more suited to 1400m+. Either way, he can go well in a 1200m maiden first up due to his class and then look for him stepping up as he gets deeper into his preparation.


#11 FIELD THE MOMENT is another from Heat 5 on Nov 22 that is going to be worth following. She was ridden with no urgency in the early stages to drop back to a clear last, travelling very quietly with the head down as she slowly edged to the middle of the track around the bend where she was then put under some pressure and showed a lovely turn of foot to get up and win. She was very quietly ridden in a previous Nov 8 jump out, so it’s certainly encouraging to see her respond to riding here and it’s not much of a surprise having shown a nice turn of foot on debut (6th fastest L400m of meeting) before going on to run 3.4L off a Listed race in SA, so the stable clearly had an opinion of her. Nice trial, she’s a filly we want to follow first up.


SANDOWN - Race 2

OTHER

Putting a bit of a watch on #1 BLACK ZOUS as his jump outs have been interesting. On Nov 9 over 1050m he led throughout but dropped back over the final 200m as the jockey had no interest in having him find the line. In Heat 4 on Nov 23 he was away well again but the jockey heavily restrained him where he threw the head around and dropped back to a very clear last, which was the case for much of the heat as he fought the jockey and was even held up slightly around the bend. Once he was finally allowed to run, he absolutely flew home into 2nd place, running past Governor Landy with ease. He only had the one start last prep that was a 2nd to Shove Over who then won a CL1 next start before finishing 2nd in a BM64 and 4th in a HCP race at Flemington - he ran the meetings fastest L800/600/400/200m that day and was unlucky not to win. Now a 4yo, this Zoustar gelding looks in good order and happy to follow him first up.


We mentioned #7 BEL AIR following his Nov 23 jump out where he closed superbly from the back of the field but was just nabbed late. He had a previous jump out on Nov 11 (behind Imasuperstar who has since won) and was back at the jump outs again in Heat 3 on Dec 2 where he got a lovely sit behind the speed, cut to the inside in the straight and again closed well to win. He’s got some very handy form including a 4th to Boogie Dancer (1st) and Berkley Square (2nd) as well as a 2nd to Aft Cabin, which is certainly good enough for most maidens and he’s been gelded over the break ahead of his second career preparation. A $320k Magic Millions purchase, he should be going well first up and will certainly be forward enough to be running well.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 1


#6 RACKERMANN (7) - B & JD Hayes

High.

Super debut run without winning, finishing 2nd at the Valley over 1200m where he just wasn't suited by the track or trip - clocked the meetings 7th fastest L200m.


Steps up to 1400m here and the big Sandown track suits. Expecting a big race and he'll be awfully hard to beat here, backing him but playing the SP late.

#11 FIELD THE MOMENT (1) - P Stokes

Low/Medium.

Quite liked her jump outs and think she'll run well here but can't have her over Rackermann who also has the benefit of some race fitness.


She's a saver bet to breakeven with the main bet on Rackermann.

Sandown, Race 2

#1 BLACK ZOUS (9) - J Hunter

Low/Medium.

His jump outs have been nice but was hoping he'd go to an easier race than this first up. Have been a big fan of Bel Air and he's got a lot better form on the board.


Backing him as a saver to breakeven.

#7 BEL AIR (10) - A & S Freedman

Medium.

Loved his jump outs and like that he's had 3x of them. He's got nice form from his debut prep and he's been gelded as well ahead of his return here.


He looks awfully hard to beat and keen to be with him here - backing him at the SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sandown, Race 5

#9 POTATO PETE (7) - R Goodwin

Our boy Pete was quite disappointing last start at Bairnsdale in a 0-58 when an odds on favourite. He just never travelled and didn't appreciate being in behind the horses.

He comes back to Sandown now while sticking at 1600m where he ran 3rd two starts ago behind Oceana Blue and Blushing Tycoon. It's a small-ish field so hoping he can find the front from barrier 7 and be there a long way but that last start dims the confidence as owners...


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 7:37am on Wednesday, 14th December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 702x runners | 214x winners (30%) & 225x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.11 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1090x runners | 265x winners (24%) & 296x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $11.95 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 40x runners | 24x wins (60%) & 10x placings (85%)

Medium Confidence: 77x runners | 32x wins (42%) & 19x placings (66%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 71x runners | 14x wins (20%) & 23x placings (52%)

Low Confidence: 14x runners | 4x wins (29%) & 3x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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