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BlackBook - Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 10 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 8

#7 COURT DEEP (6) - C Maher & D Eustace

Low.

The blinkers went on for the first time in a May 1 jump out over 1000m following a 7-week let up and they certainly worked as the 6yo bolted in by a huge margin after leading throughout. That was on a Heavy track.


He’s got a first up record of 6: 3-0-1 so he clearly goes well fresh and has no issues with a wet track (Heavy record of 2: 2-0-0), both of which he gets here.


He’ll likely find the front from barrier 4 with a 1.5kg claim from T.Stockdale so with some residual fitness and that key gear change, he looks worth a bet at a big price of $21+.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sandown, Race 1

#1 GRAND LARCENY (5) - M, W & J Hawkes

BlackBook jump out comments:

GRAND LARCENY was the pick of Heat 9 on Apr 21. The 2yo Zoustar colt was slowly away but quickly mustered the speed to take a sit just off the leaders where he was under a hold with the mouth open, wanting to go on with it where he was then allow to slide around the leaders and cruised to the line very nicely with no pressure coming from the jockey. He looks a nice mover and as a $800k purchase being a half-brother to Yes Yes Yes, there will be plenty of expectation for when he hits the track. It’s only his first career jump out.


GRAND LARCENY put in another good performance in Heat 5 on Apr 28 to back up his Apr 21 jump out as he did so from the front while relatively kept under wraps for most of the heat. He did a bit wrong in that first jump out as he was restrained, so it was good to see him relax a bit better as he was allowed to stride out in front and it was certainly good to see him strong through the line. He’s the half-brother of Yes Yes Yes that was a $800k buy and looks a nice moving colt.

Sandown, Race 1

#7 HEARCOMESTHESTAR (7) - J Moloney

BlackBook jump out comments:

HEARCOMESTHESTAR looks to be a Zoustar filly with a turn of foot. A $150k buy and a half-sister to the $350k Scream who’s now with the Yargi yard, this filly closed well over the top in an Apr 17 jump out on the poly track after being slowly away and settling near the rear of the field. She was away a lot better in Heat 14 on May 1 as she sat off the speed and stalked the leader at the top of the straight before then eating up the margin late over the concluding stages without ever being put under any real pressure. She looked like she could’ve exploded to the front to win this if she was ever asked in a nice performance. She moves well.

Last Updated: 7:59am AEDT on Wednesday, 10th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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