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BlackBook - Tuesday, 9 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 9 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

#5 CHAMMAK CHALLO had the 2x trials in NSW for 2x 2nd’s, making the switch to the McEvoy’s in VIC where she went straight to the front and bolted in over 850m in Heat 3 on Apr 21, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process where the Heavy track was clearly no worries. We don’t love the McEvoy horses that just lead and bolt in but considering she’s only been with the stable for 3 weeks and she’s owned by Gerry Harvey, we can likely trust her. She’s by I Am Invincible out of a Redoute’s Choice mare that finished 2nd in the Group 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m while also being Group 2 placed over 1600m, she’s well bred and looks to have some talent.


BALLARAT - Race 3

OTHER

#3 SECRET STONES was plain on debut when 5th at Werribee and as a result was immediately tipped out. He returned for a quiet jump out on Apr 21 (yellow silks) where he left the gates in front but just cruised to the line under a hold throughout. He did similar in Heat 10 on Apr 28 (white silks) where he just cruised throughout on the inside, not put under any pressure and doing it really easy, clocking a slick time in the process. He looks to have come back improved for his second career prep (and race).

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 1

#5 CHAMMAK CHALLO (13) - T & C McEvoy

*no bet*

She jumped out super at Ararat and looks well placed here first up.

We were happy to take the $2 favourite on in WALLENDA - she is a 2yo, so we're about to see them regularly take on the older horses but in early-May, always thought that's too early and they're competitive more towards late-June/July. Unfortunately, he's been scratched and that ruins the price for our mare.


Think she's the one to beat and she probably should just win a race of this calibre, but not keen on taking ~$2 about her from that barrier - she needs to go forward to have any chance from out there and may just do too much work to get across, or be trapped wide.


No bet at the price - want $3+ to be getting involved.

Ballarat, Race 3

#3 SECRET STONES (6) - B & JD Hayes

Low/Medium.

He was a touch disappointing on debut having had a good run just off the speed and as a result, was tipped out - that race did rate pretty well though.

His 2x JO's ahead of his return have been nice where he hasn't been asked for much of an effort in either but was right there in the finish. Hoping he can do similar here first up and he's drawn well to get a lovely run just off the speed. If he has a motor under the hood, he'll be coming home late.


This is a solid but open race - Frenchmans Bay has only had the 1x JO but it was here and she was super through the line, she's the top hope. Signal will lead, which suits at Ballarat, but have a query on him over 1200m so unsure what to make of him.


Think we can back SECRET STONES but staking down for a ½ stake, betting to collect 2%/2u.

Last Updated: 7:55am AEDT on Tuesday, 9th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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