Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 5 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BALLARAT - Race 1
OTHER
#4 GOLDEN MILE was a clear class above, taking out Heat 9 on Mar 18 by a big margin after Oil gave him some urgings late without getting too into him. Will note that this heat was won in 48.62s, significantly slower than the days average of 46.62s. The blinkers went on here following a solid 3rd in a Mar 4 jump out.
BALLARAT - Race 2
OTHER
#3 FOXSHIP won a Mar 11 jump out prior to taking out Heat 11 on Mar 29 over the 1000m, holding off Arktika and clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. The 3yo gelding was 5th to Zoumon on debut and 4th to Brooklyn Boss, where both of those runners go well. He has been given time and looks to be moving well ahead of his resumption, and he’s started $26 SP in both his runs so maybe one at a price.
Three jump outs wins now for #11 STARSELLA, winning Heat 16 on Mar 22 in the fastest 1000m time of the morning by well over 5L. We mentioned after her latest jump out on Mar 15 that we would’ve liked to see a little more from her, well this was certainly that little bit more as she absolutely bolted in and did so in quick time. A bit worried about a McEvoy bolting in a jump out though, as we haven’t had the best of luck recently so treading carefully but certainly following her ahead of her resumption.
BALLARAT - Race 7
OTHER
#2 JABALI RIDGE was way too good for them over the 1000m in Heat 2 on Mar 29, cruising throughout as the rest of the field was pushed out just to keep up with him. He’s a 4yo gelding with only the 1x win from 16x starts, but he’s been in races a bit better than his 62 rating suggests, including being 3rd first up in a BM70 last preparation. This is his second prep now with Michael Huglin and would love to see him resume in a BM58 to get some confidence.
OTHER RUNNERS - NSW
Hawkesbury, Race 4 - #1 CAPTAIN BOND (3)
Mar 22 (Rosehill) - only a $7k 2021 MM Gold Coast National Yearling Sale purchase - did a bit wrong early when sitting outside leader, over-raced a little but did settle and let down well in the straight to win by 2.73L, put the field away really well - similar to a previous Dec 14 trial where he was back in the field on the fence and had to work his way through not much room, again letting down well to just win on the line - he has a nice turn of foot.
*The sub-$2 is too short for us - he debuts on a Heavy track with only the 1x trial, which isn't often a winning combination.*
OUR THOUGHTS
Ballarat, Race 2 - FOXSHIP & STARSELLA
STARSELLA's debut run rated +7.1, which is the best last start rating of the race and the second best peak rating of the race. JAYANTHI's debut rated +8.1 (where she gapped 3rd by 5.5L), which is the only rating close to that of STARSELLA's and they're clearly the top two picks of the exposed form - JAYANTHI has the benefit of that first up (fitness) and returns to Ballarat on the back of that with much better track conditions here.
STARSELLA has won the 3x jump outs ahead of her return. The first was alongside Emperor's Star (since 5th in a BM58) over 850m before stepping up to 1000m, the latest where she absolutely bolted in. She looks a big chance here and it's no surprise to see her smashed in from that $11 opening quote on TAB (which would've been nice).
FOXSHIP looks well over the odds at $21+ though - ratings wise, he's going to need to improve on his first two career runs but his jump outs this time in suggest he has, so he might be able to run a big race at a price and he's drawn beautifully with barrier 4 to do so.
The play looks to be a spec on FOXSHIP and a low-confidence play on STARSELLA for a total outlay of 1-unit. Not a stack of confidence on this race, but want to have something on as a win by either of these runners wouldn't shock - just not expecting any big performances, we'll need some luck.
BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS
We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Ballarat, Race 2
STARSELLA ~ 0.80 units WIN @ $4.00 (TAB)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +9.91 units at Recommend Price | +43.96 units at Betfair SP
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