BlackBook - Tuesday, 25 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 25 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WARRACKNABEAL - Race 1

OTHER

#2 LIPAROO has been travelling comfortably at the jump outs and did so in amongst some good company in his latest jump out, finishing 3rd in Heat 1 on Oct 11 behind Court Deep and Mac ’N’ Cheese. The 3yo Toronado gelding sat outside Court Deep throughout this heat, cruising to the line over the concluding stages. He cruised to the line in his Aug 23 and Sep 28 jump outs as well, but was pushed out in his middle jump out on Sep 12 where he showed a nice turn of foot to come from the back of the field to finish a close 2nd. He’ll be well educated and being trained by Austy Coffey, he’ll pop up in a country maiden where he can go well. Hoping he’s a nice price to have a small bet.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Warracknabeal, Race 1

#2 LIPAROO (8) - A Coffey

Low/Medium.

This race has been decimated by scratchings, which is annoying as we were keen to play regardless at $17, and now have to take $4, albeit a smaller/weaker field.


Coffey for Coffey is a great combo and his jump outs have certainly been good enough to go well on debut + he's had the 4x of them, so he should certainly be forward enough and he looked to handle the Heavy tracks in them, but that's an obvious big query.


Would've preferred a small bet at $17, but still going to have a bet on him at $4+ regardless, he can run well.

If you can get on BETR, back using their promo for bonus back for 2nd to 4th (up to $50).

Last Updated: 8:11am on Tuesday, 25th October 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 694x runners | 211x winners (30%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.17 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1040x runners | 248x winners (24%) & 284x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.22 WIN $3.03 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 30x runners | 20x wins (67%) & 6x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 47x runners | 6x wins (13%) & 16x placings (47%)

Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB