Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 23 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 1
OTHER
#1 AEECEE PRINCE made the switch to Andrew Bobbin mid-prep last prep, failing to fire in all five runs with two of those with Ciaron Maher and the latest three with Andrew Bobbin. Given a spell, the 4yo Pride Of Dubai gelding returned to win Heat 1 on Jul 26 comfortably at Murtoa over the 900m, clocking the second fastest time of the morning behind Just Folk in the process. We want to see another jump out, but this was an encouraging return.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2
OTHER
This was a super jump out by the un-raced 2yo gelding in #4 RIVKIN, taking out Heat 4 on Jul 14 over the 900m but he did clock the slowest time of the morning. Patrick Ryan Jnr only has a few horses in work, but this son of Pariah would have to be one of his most prized horses having been a $240K purchase from the 2021 Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale. He’s a half-brother to the 3yo Not A Single Doubt filly in Mallory, a Group 3 winner as a 2yo that was 9th in the Golden Slipper, as well as the Smart Missile mare in Sassy 'n' Smart, who was Group performed in NZ. Well bred with a slick jump out win (in his first jump out this prep), he’s one to keep an eye on.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Warrnambool, Race 1 | |
#1 AEECEE PRINCE (4) - A Bobbin | Low/Medium. He has since finished 2nd in a jump out on Aug 4 over 1000m, which will tick him over to be ready to go here first up. Obvious queries on the Heavy(10) track - the favourite has nice enough form but this gelding can run a nice E/W race. We'll be ½ staking (backing for 2% of bank) due to those Heavy track queries, it's just too hard to have confidence. |
Warrnambool, Race 2 | |
#4 RIVKIN (4) - P Ryan Jnr | Low. The favourite in Yellow Sam has nice form behind Jamarra on debut, handling the Heavy track that day which is a big advantage. Our gelding has since had a jump out on Aug 10 when 2nd to Pythagoras and in front of Intellective. He's jumped out well, but the Heavy track is a massive query and the favourite is going to be very hard to beat - Jarrod Fry was booked for both him and RIVKIN, but takes the ride on Yellow Sam. Not keen on getting involved at ~$7 on the Heavy track here so happy to let him go around. If you're looking at playing, would recommend ½ staking. |
Last Updated: 8:39am on Tuesday, 23rd August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
'Other' Runners:
956x runners | 219x winners (23%) & 263x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.62 WIN $3.09 PLC
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):