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BlackBook - Tuesday, 20 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 20 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


TERANG - Race 9

OTHER

We have to follow #2 BEST LIFE second up. First up at Geelong over 1500m she missed the kick by over 5L but still managed to finish 3L off the winner after having a horrid run after that blundered start. She went around in Heat 4 on Dec 7 as per the Stewards request, jumping cleanly and just travelling very quietly out the back. She should be winning a maiden.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Terang, Race 9


#2 BEST LIFE (1) - T Dabernig

Low/Medium.

We had her mentioned prior to the first up run at Geelong over 1500m and nothing went right - she missed the kick by a massive margin (genuinely 5-10L) where she wasn’t even on the screen in the early stages, yet somehow finished only 3.1L off the winner back in 7th after also having to loop the field very wide, it was a super run. The 2nd (Majestic Style) and 4th (Aperitivo) horses have both since won at $1.60 SP.


She’s since gone back to the jump outs, just cruising in a 1000m heat at Hamilton. She comes back to the races now second up where the slight step up from 1500m to 1600m suits and the big Terang straight will more than suit. She’s $7+ and happy to have a bet at that price.

Last Updated: 8:22am on Tuesday, 20th December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1102x runners | 268x winners (24%) & 302x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.01 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 42x runners | 25x wins (60%) & 11x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 81x runners | 34x wins (42%) & 21x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 76x runners | 16x wins (21%) & 24x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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