Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 17 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
HAMILTON - Race 8
#5 TRUE NOBILITY was super winning Heat 7 on Dec 22, leading and going to the line untested with the ears pricked. He looked like he could’ve bolted in if he was given a little more reign. Super return - he’ll likely have another jump out but ultimately end up in a BM58 first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Hamilton, Race 8
#5 TRUE NOBILITY (4) - P Chow
He was a touch unlucky first up when travelling wide to avoid trouble and just couldn’t reel in the winner, running some nice closing splits. He did that on the back of only 1x JO, so will take plenty of improvement from that run and sticking at the 1100m here certainly suits, as does barrier 4.
He had Thunder Park covered first up and the rest of the field doesn’t look to be anything special so think he’s the clear horse to beat.
The issue is the price, don't want to be taking sub-$2 so just going to monitor and see if he gets out late. We're looking for $2.50+, but if he doesn't get out then he can win without us (which he should anyway).
Last Updated: 8:00am AEDT on Tuesday, 17th January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 709x runners | 219x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.05 WIN $2.27 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1140x runners | 280x winners (25%) & 316x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.07 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 48x runners | 29x wins (60%) & 13x placings (88%)
Medium Confidence: 98x runners | 40x wins (41%) & 30x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 21x wins (22%) & 29x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 19x runners | 4x wins (21%) & 5x placings (47%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):