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BlackBook - Tuesday, 14 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 14 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

There is no ‘official’ time on the replay, but #2 HEDGED would’ve clocked around 46s in his win in Heat 3 on Feb 20, a very slick all the way win over the 800m for this 2yo Capitalist colt who was having only his first jump out back this prep. He had a prep of 2x jump outs back in Oct/Nov when 2nd in both of those to Ouroboros (ran 2nd on debut) and Pure Paradise (ran 2nd on debut). He’ll have another jump out, so keep an eye on him.

#2 HEDGED was super again, backing up his Feb 20 win with another smart win in Heat 4 on Feb 27 as he clocked the fourth fastest time of the morning similar to the likes of What You Need and Wolflands. The Roll The Dice syndicate look to have a speedy 2yo colt on their hands, the son of Capitalist sitting outside the leader throughout this heat before showing a lovely turn of foot as he was put slightly under pressure, opening up a margin with ease as he really hit the line. He was purchased for $140k at the Magic Millions sales and looks to be a speedy colt we can follow on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 1

#2 HEDGED (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

Mark Zahra was heading to Ballarat for only the one ride on this colt but he got suspended on Saturday and now John Allen takes the ride - interestingly, MZ rode Pantelone last start but clearly had a preference to this colt on debut and he could not have jumped out any better.


His first JO was just a simple bolt in under no pressure, but his latest saw him put under pressure and really respond to that riding, extending away to win quite comfortably. He looks smart and expecting him to debut accordingly.


He was $4+ into $2.50 but now has drifted to ~$3.40 since John Allen took the ride from MZ - we think he looks a lovely bet at that price now.

Pantelone is the clear danger

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Ballarat, Race 2

#8 SUBLIMINAL (7) - L & T Corstens

BlackBook jump out comments:

SUBLIMINAL deadset cruised to the line out the back in his first jump out on Feb 17 that was really just a glorified track gallop, but it was a different story in Heat 13 on Mar 3 as the blinkers went on as we saw the 3yo filly take off straight to the front with a big margin and that margin just got even bigger as the heat went on, not to mention he clocked the fastest time of the morning too so it had substance. Her form is ordinary, but now back for her second prep she can make an improved return to the races.

Ballarat, Race 4

#5 IMPENDING LINK (4) - G Eurell

BlackBook jump out comments:

Liked the return of IMPENDING LINK who was having his first jump out this preparation in Heat 8 on Feb 13, closing nicely from the middle of the pack to finish 4th. The son of Impending was a $50k Magic Millions purchase and is one to keep an eye on into another jump out.

Closing nicely into 2nd place in Heat 21 on Feb 27 was IMPENDING LINK, a 3yo gelding that also caught our eye after his 4th placing on Feb 13 where he just cruised to the line. He stepped up to 1000m here where he got a nice run behind the speed before being ridden out and put under a fair bit of pressure late, responding to really get going late and hit the line hard. He’ll likely need a bit of distance but there is no doubt that there is some talent there.

Ballarat, Race 4

#7 MAGARTEN (7) - J Hunter

BlackBook jump out comments:

A third jump out now for MAGARTEN and it was much of the same, winning Heat 4 on Feb 15 but although against 2yo’s, he travelled nicely in behind the speed before he got a gap along the fence and extended nicely to and through the line over the 900m. We mentioned him following a Feb 6 official trial over 990m when he won ahead of Muramasa and also noted his quiet Jan 25 jump out when 2nd to Overhymn (ran 3rd first up), all of which were nice bits of work and he’s certainly had a nice turn of foot on show in all of his jump outs. His form isn’t great and he did start $19 and $31 in his only two career starts, so we might get a nice price first up but regardless, we’re keen to follow him in.


He ran the meetings fastest L400m/L200m first up at Sandown.

Ballarat, Race 6

#9 NIJIKO (8) - M Raymond

BlackBook jump out comments:

Nice return win for WRITTENBYALADY, leading from start to finish in Heat 6 on Feb 27 to record a solid win but thought the fast finishing NIJIKO who was flying down the outside of the track was the clear eye catcher and main take away from this heat.

Last Updated: 7:37am AEDT on Tuesday, 14th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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