Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 10 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Yarra Valley, Race 1
#8 REFRESHING (8) - M Moroney
BlackBook jump out comments:
We’re going to mention all of the first three that crossed the line in Heat 6 on Dec 23, being Meschever, Ivan’s Hero and the 3yo filly REFRESHING. After having no luck in a Dec 9 where she cruised to the line, the 3yo filly took up a more forward position here where she was then put under some pressure in the straight and closed nicely enough. It wasn’t a super jump out, but a solid bit of work that’s worth keeping in mind first up depending on where she goes.
Last Updated: 7:33am (QLD) on Tuesday, 10th January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1129x runners | 277x winners (25%) & 312x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.10 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 39x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 88x runners | 19x wins (22%) & 27x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):