BlackBook - Thursday, 4 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 4 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


FLEMINGTON - Race 9

OTHER

Very good win by #17 XTRA GEAR coming off the 5-week let up after finishing 7th in a Group 2 at Caulfield, coming from near last under no jockey pressure in Heat 5 on Oct 25 to get up and win in the final strides. Interested to see if she goes back to town for another throw at the stumps or if they look for a BM64 and work her through the grades.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Flemington, Race 5 - ESPIONA

We had this filly in our #BlackBook on debut and we're keen to follow her and see where she ends up.


Ratings wise, NEW YORK BABY brings in the best last start and peak benchmark rating at -7.0. She's the main (and maybe only) danger as all the others got scratched (e.g. Our Heidi, Roots and Decent Raine).


ESPIONA brings in the fourth best last start benchmark rating at -3.5, which she did on debut on a Soft6 deteriorating track (was a Heavy9 by the end of the day) where she was eased down and never fully tested. She beat Arranmore by 3.46L, that runner won a Maiden at Randwick on Wednesday by 1.19L, while she was 5L+ above the rest of the field. She ran 1:11.02s, which was 0.07s quicker than the BM78 later that date (albeit on a wetter track). She also only had the 900m trial heading into that, so she has a stack of improvement to come still.


She was entered in at Randwick on Tuesday as a $1.35 favourite, scratched to come here with Chris Waller scratching the stablemate (and second favourite) Roots. J-Mac sticks with her after riding on debut and the step up from 1200m to 1400m certainly suits. No worries at all about the wet, she handled that fine on debut too. Expect her to take a sit around midfield from barrier 5 and the big Flemington straight is perfect for her to unleash that turn of foot.


Think she just wins. She did it so easily on debut and we expect her to be very (very) hard to beat here - would be surprised if she loses. We'll play the SP in the hope she drifts a little late.


Flemington, Race 9 - XTRA GEAR

Ratings wise she needs to improve a stack to win this, where she brings in the second worst peak benchmark rating... she has jumped out well though and is one to include in the Quaddie at long odds. No bets from us on her though.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 5.00 units.


Flemington, Race 5

ESPIONA ~ 5.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP (or 'Best Tote & SP' on TopSport)


Overall: - 4.15 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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