BlackBook - Thursday, 28 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 28 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 4

OTHER

#7 RICH BAY is one at (hopefully) good odds that we’re going to have to keep in mind. The 4yo gelding was 2nd to Mask Up in a Sep 27 jump out (with that runner then winning a maiden by 2.8L) and finishing in front of the 69-rated Glassey Miss. He was then 2nd in Heat 10 on Oct 11 over 800m but was heavily restrained in the early stages to not go forward and take a sit, travelling wide throughout and overdoing it as a result. He was asked for a little bit of an effort in the straight and looked to respond well enough. He’s not going to be a confident play, but hopefully one at odds we can spec.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Warrnambool, Race 4 - RICH BAY

As expected, APSARA ran at Bendigo on Wednesday (where she finished 2nd) and scratched from this race to give us a massive $0.43 deductions (per TAB). This opens the race up now.

Ratings wise, BURDEKIN now brings in the best last start benchmark rating and the peak benchmark rating and he's quite clear of the rest. He's been short in most of his runs and the blinkers go back on here.


Quite like barrier 1 for RICH BAY and with J Fry on board, he can go straight to the front over the 1000m and lead the whole way. He opened up $26 on TAB and has had some backing (plus the deductions) - as a result, he's a bit shorter than what we thought he would be and probably expecting him to drift from here.


We'll have a spec on him and play the Betfair SP to wait for the drift late (that hopefully comes).


Gosford, Race 1 - SACRED FIELD (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes)

Couldn't have trialled better but there is no way we're diving into ~$1.20 so we'll let him go around at the price. Our original trial blackbook comments were as follows:

  • Oct 22 (Rosehill) - you won’t see anymore impressive trial wins than this - second fastest time of the morning at a really slick 52.74s along with a 6L win when leading from start to finish and never asked for an effort at any stage - he’s come back as a gelding and now looks a real horse - couldn’t be more impressed, super keen to follow him first up (not expecting a big price).

Expect him to win, so monitor the price closer to the jump and if we can get $1.80 to $2+ then certainly look to play but couldn't possibly recommend a bet this morning at the ~$1.20.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 0.25 units.


Warrnambool, Race 1:

RICH BAY ~ 0.25 units WIN @ Betfair SP.


Overall: - 0.61 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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