BlackBook - Thursday, 24 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 23 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 4

OTHER

#7 IMASUPERSTAR was in the market on debut but very green, not handling the turns at all and travelling very wide throughout as he was a bit disappointing in the end. He returned for a quiet jump out on Oct 14 when winning before winning again in Heat 15 on Nov 11 where he was pushed out and asked to extend late, doing so late and past the line in an encouraging performance. Like that he was put under pressure here rather than just cruising to the line under a hold considering he was green on debut, so it looks like his manners have improved over the break and he’s come back in good order as a 3yo. Happy to follow him first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 4

#7 IMASUPERSTAR (6) - L & T Corstens

Low/Medium.

It's a reasonable field but a few queries around those at the top of the market.

Etienne jumped out well over 800m alongside Daimyo (since 4th MDN), but has only had the 1x JO which is a query. Strapparsi has good form behind Drop The Verse who has since ran 2nd BM64 and 3rd BM70. Fire Power has jumped out against better horses but has only been fair?


He looks like an E/W chance here on the back of some nice jump outs. The tongue tie goes on, which will hopefully help considering his manners on debut.


Not a stack of confidence so want to ½ stake and we're going to be playing late as he likely gets out in price (think we could get closer to ~$10) - can't imagine them coming for him on the back of his debut and if they do, that's a really good sign...

In summary, ½ stake (collect 2%) at the SP (or late drift).

Last Updated: 8:38am on Thursday, 24th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1065x runners | 256x winners (24%) & 291x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.08 WIN $3.01 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 20x placings (50%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB