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BlackBook - Thursday, 23 June 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 23 June 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.



MOE - Race 2

OTHER

#5 MALIEPO has had the two starts for a 7th of 8 ($81 SP) and 4th of 8 ($101 SP) while also finishing last in a May 25 jump out, but the 3yo filly went straight to the front in Heat 9 on Jun 15 and bolted in, in a big change of form. This could be an outlier, but have to mention her and would happily have a tiny bet at a huge price first up, especially if she goes to Mornington on a heavy track.


MOE - Race 4

OTHER

#3 CHEEKY KEVIN continues to win jump outs, taking out Heat 10 on Jun 15 over the 900m having also won a previous May 18 jump out as well as an Apr 6 jump out (over 700m) prior to his disappointing debut run (when 7th of 8) besides being jumping at an SP of $7. He was listed under K Southey here instead of Pat Carey, which is an interesting stable change. He’s one to monitor as if he brings his jump out form to raceday, he’ll go well, but based on his 1x run it seems a big if.


#14 SABAID is becoming a bit of a jump out specialist, so we need to tread carefully but he should be a big price so he’s probably worth a small bet at a big price. He took out Heat 3 on Jun 15 with ease, stepping up to 900m here and clocking the third fastest time of the morning (quicker than Bless Her earlier in the day) to back up his 600m win on May 25. He handled the Heavy track well here, so keep an eye on him this prep to see if he’s worth a small low confidence bet.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

Looking like a low confidence but small bets at big prices type of day. At $26+, only need to have ~$10-$15 or so to get a return (pending your staking). If one wins, we win nicely for the day but don't lose a real lot if none win.

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moe, Race 2

#5 MALIEPO (7) - R Waymouth

Low/Medium.

Low confidence, but have to have a small play at $26+

Moe, Race 4

#3 CHEEKY KEVIN (11) - K Southey

Low/Medium.

Low confidence, but have to have a small play at $26+

#14 SABAID (6) - R Harrison

Low/Medium.

Been backed in from $51 to $16, which is quite interesting - think he gets out close to the jump and is another one that's low confidence, but will be a small play at a nice price (hopefully).

Last Updated: 8:33am on Thursday, 23rd June 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

666x runners | 199x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.30 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

855x runners | 192x winners (22%) & 233x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $13.03 WIN $3.13 PLC


Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


NOTES

Confidence levels will be as follows:

  • Low = not keen to bet.

  • Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).

  • Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.

  • High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.

  • Special = very keen, should be winning.

Any questions / feedback / issues, please send us a message on Twitter or email us. Appreciate it.


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