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BlackBook - Thursday, 20 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 20 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


ARARAT - Race 10

OTHER

#8 SHE’S PRETTY RICH was a class above in Heat 2 on Apr 5, winning by 3L over the 800m in the second fastest time of the morning, extending away late when she was put under pressure after sitting wide and on-speed throughout the early stages. In her 7-career starts, she’s only contest 1x race that wasn’t at Group or Listed level, being her maiden win - she’s still only 61-rated so a BM64 first up would certainly be suitable but considering this was only her first bit of work, expecting another jump out prior to resuming.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ararat, Race 10

#8 SHE'S PRETTY RICH (9) - M Brown

Medium.

She won first up last prep over 1000m on a Heavy(9) track, so don’t expect the 1108m or the Heavy track to be an issue here. The horse she beat that day went on to run 2nd to Wee Nessy by only 0.75L, who ran 2nd in the Group 2 Arrowfield just recently, so the form around her there is good while the form in her other 6-starts is all stakes form as this is the only non-Group/Listed race she’s ran in.


She’s only had the 1x trial but it was super where she looks to have class so a BM58 first up with barrier 9 where we expect her to be hard to beat.

Happy to bet at the $2.30-$2.60 available this morning, she's more a ~$2 chance.

Pakenham, Race 6

#2 KEW PLAYER (8) - D & C Feek

Low.

He was a superb winner 1UP at Geelong over 1212m when coming from the back, but has failed to replicate that in either of his two subsequent starts, beating home only one runner.

He’s had a 6-week let-up and returned for a super jump out Apr 12 over 1100m. The tongue tie goes on and Pakenham suits as he is a get back and run on horse - at $23+, we’re having a bet.

Pakenham, Race 8

#3 PROWLING (8) - G Eurell

Low/Medium.

He has looked super the jump outs - his first on Mar 14 saw him win comfortably ahead of Magic Time (since 1st in a Group 3 in Sydney), Pascero and Veranskova (since 1st HCP at Flemington). He then went around on Mar 28 over 1000m where he was given a much more solid hit out, ridden out but responding to fight off Pascero (since 3.3L off a BM78) with a huge gap back to 3rd, clocking the clear fastest time of the morning.


He’s been going super since the blinkers came off last prep, winning a CL1 and a BM70 before being held up behind Toregene at Flemington. His form is nice, he goes well fresh (never missed a place first up) and has jumped out super in good company - he’s worth a bet here at ~$3.50. Thought he'd start favourite...

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 3

#12 REAL ALLIANCE (5) - L Oliver

BlackBook jump out comments:

REAL ALLIANCE started $101 SP on debut and she certainly ran better than her price suggested, coming from the back of the field to finish 6th while clocking the meetings second fastest L400m/L200m in a nice rating race. She’s been given time, returning in Heat 8 on Apr 11 for a very impressive first jump out, coming to the outside fence and hitting the line really nicely under very minimal pressure. Being by Real Impact out of a mare that got out over 2000m herself, she’ll likely be one to follow further into the prep but certainly one to follow into another jump out and first up as well.


Looks an E/W chance.

Monitor to see if she drifts as $10+ is worth a small bet but at ~$6 having only had the 1x JO where she'll likely appreciate the run and get over further + this is a solid race (Kusini and New Hampshire both ran well last start), think we let her go around if she starts ~$5.

Pakenham, Race 4

#5 OAKLEIGH (12) - R Besanko

BlackBook jump out comments:

OAKLEIGH is a 4yo gelding who’s a 19-start maiden with only 1x career placings, but you wouldn’t of known with how he won Heat 7 on Apr 11, extending away late as he was put under pressure to record a dominant victory in solid time. Obviously will be very minimal confidence given his record but he might be worth something small at a big price first up.


Only ~$18 this morning so would think he drifts and if he does get to a huge price, we can have ~$5 on him but hard to have any confidence on a 19-start maiden (with only 1x placing) on the back of only 1x JO.

Last Updated: 7:49am AEDT on Thursday, 20th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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