Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 2 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
Although race fit, #9 INVINCIBILUS was a very very good winner of Heat 13 on Jan 20, going straight to the front and just cruising to the line under a ridiculous hold to win with ease. The 4yo mare is 63-rated now having finished 5th of 7 and 6th of 10 in two BM70 runs this prep, so look for her third up now in a BM64 where she can run super as this jump out was very good.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
#5 TRIGGERIFIC cruised to the line in a Jan 4 jump out over 900m when 2nd and did similar in Heat 4 on Jan 18 over 1100m where he just dropped to the back of the field before coming wide around the bend and coming home really strongly along the outside fence, handling the Heavy track well. The 3yo son of Tosen Stardom was $201 on debut at Sandown over 1300m, finishing 3.45L off The Deputy back in 5th where it was an encouraging debut. He was tipped out following this and looks to be in good order ahead of his resumption for his second career prep.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 2
#10 DUNDANCER (7) - J Sadler
Loved the debut from this filly over 1400m. She was slowly away and settled to the back of the field as a result where she cruised along the rail. She had a bit of trouble finding some room at the top of the straight but really let down late, clocking the meetings 6th fastest L200m.
The step up to 1600m suits, as does the wider barrier so expecting a much improved performance here and she should be in the finish as a result. The field is solid and it is against the older 4YO's so a slight query there, but she has all the upside.
Happy to be with her, the ~$3 looks about right and happy to bet.
Pakenham, Race 4
#9 INVINCIBILUS (3) - B & JD Hayes
Disappointed that Cranbourne meeting didn't go ahead but we don't lose anything in terms of price here, she's still a big price. Drawn well with barrier 3 where the drop back to BM64 grade suits, as does the 1000m.
We can back her here, she should be running a nice race following a super mid-prep JO - the $17+ is a nice price to bet.
Pakenham, Race 5
#5 TRIGGERIFIC (9) - L Tolson & L Proctor
This might be a bit of an ask first up for this gelding, but he's a huge price and he's certainly not without at least a small chance of giving this a shake following some nice JO's. The top four in the market are obviously going to be hard to beat but they're all quite even and hard to split, which is why we're looking outside the box with this gelding for a blowout.
Happy to have a bet at the $71-$81+ available - he's a good place bet too if you like betting E/W or 1x3.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Pakenham, Race 3
#2 DEGREEOFDIFFICULTY (11) - C Brown
BlackBook jump out comments:
DEGREEOFDIFFICULTY had two previous jump outs over 600m and 700m, stepping up to 900m for his third jump out ahead of his debut and this was certainly his most impressive. The 3yo All Too Hard colt took a sit behind the speed in Heat 10 on Jan 25 as he got a lovely run in transit before getting the gap at the top of the straight where he was then put under a little bit of pressure and asked to extend, which he did as he got past the leaders to win quite comfortably in the end. Like that change of gears from him and like that he hit the line strongly despite the slow-ish overall time, he looks to be a colt that moves nicely.
No bet - as above, tough race and looking elsewhere - would prefer him in an easier maiden.
Last Updated: 8:27am AEDT on Thursday, 2nd February 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):