Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 12 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
KILMORE - Race 6
It was the slowest time of the morning, but #7 ZOE MAE led comfortably throughout Heat 4 on Apr 26 before extending away in the straight to record a dominant victory. The 4yo mare only has the 1x win and 2x placings from 13x starts, but she prefers the wet with the sole win and all the placings coming on soft/heavy tracks. One to watch in BM58’s over winter that may be able to pop up at a price.
PAKENHAM - Race 3
#4 DEMINAUR looks to be one to keep an eye on at a price. He took out Heat 13 on May 2 over the 1000m in the fastest time of the morning, albeit ridden out over the concluding stages. He’s had a few jump outs now, 6x to be exact but he’s had a 10-week let-up prior to the 2x this prep and I wouldn’t take much from that first Apr 26 jump out as he was racing in restricted room the entire way and even got a bit wonky around the corner - he never got a real crack at them hence the 8th placing. Monitor for a spec at a price.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
EASY SINGLE was super over the concluding stages of Heat 5 on Apr 26 to record a very nice win as he just got over the top of Libertus. The runner that really caught the eye in this heat was the un-raced 4yo #9 TOUCH OF PATIENCE, who went to the line untouched in 3rd place in only his first jump out this preparation. We’ll be keeping a close eye on him.
We have been doing a ‘unit’ system over the past 8 or so months, which has been fun but challenging at the same time. Going forward, we will implementing a change to the way we deliver our BlackBook runners based on feedback and some advice on how others have delivered their information. In particular, we love the way Dan O’Sullivan presents his ‘top selections’ and ‘runners’ each meeting in an appeal/confidence format, which is a method we will be adopting from now on.
We will continue to list all of our BlackBook runners with our original BlackBook comments from our Weekly Reviews (as above), but instead of “Our Thoughts/Bets”, we will now instead detail our confidence level for the runner in that particular race (as below). This will be known as the 'BlackBook Summary'. As our results show, it is better to focus on the 'Highlighted Runners' as these have a better strike rate than the 'Other Runners'
We will also start to include more detailed NSW analysis in our Weekly Reviews along with some NZ runners that will then start to feature in our BlackBook.
Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
Any questions / feedback / issues, please send us a message on Twitter or email us. Appreciate it.
Confidence - Comments
Kilmore, Race 6
#7 Zoe Mae (6) - Ray Besanko
Pakenham, Race 3
#3 Deminaur (6) - Doug Harrison
Low - wouldn't talk you out of a tiny spec at $51+ ($5 max), but would be surprised if he won.
Pakenham, Race 4
#9 Touch Of Patience (3) - Brendon Hawtin
High - see below.
Pakenham, Race 4 - TOUCH OF PATIENCE
Quick note from us about this runner. He's trained by Brandon Hawtin, who is assistant trainer for Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young and only has the 2x horses in work (including this gelding). Her jump out Apr 26 was a nice bit of work and it was behind Easy Single, who's $6.50 in a BM84 at Flemington on Saturday, and Libertus, who won a BM70 at Sandown on Wednesday.
His jump out back on Sep 20 was good too. The only query is he's only had the 1x jump out, but barrier 3 is a lovely draw and like that Daniel Moor is on board. Think he's worth a bet here - we can get $7.00 on TopSport.
Results since August 2020:
Highlighted Runners: 660x runners | 198x winners (30%) & 208x placings (62%) @ Ave Betfair SP of $8.33 W & $2.31 P Other Runners: 759x runners | 168x winners (22%) & 208x placings (50%) @ Ave Betfair SP of $12.98 W & $3.09 P.
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