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BlackBook - Thursday, 10 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 9 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

Not sure what to make of #9 DELICATE BABE, but she’s now strung together a few nice jump outs and surely can’t be far away from a debut where she’d go well in a maiden. She had 3x trials in WA in April/May before an 11-week let up to return for another trial in July. She was then put away for another 9-week let up and switched to the care of Julien Welsh in Victoria, jumping out another 3x times where she won her first two before finishing 3rd to Grandslam and My Oberon. She has been given another break, this time only a 3-week freshen up and returned in Heat 3 on Oct 31 over the 990m where she just cruised to the line in first gear to finish 2nd. She’s a 4yo Not A Single Doubt mare that has obviously had her fair share of issues, but the talent seems to be there for when she finally does to get the track.


PAKENHAM - Race 3

OTHER

A pair of jump out wins now for #2 EMERALD JACK and he looks in good order ahead of his return. He won an 800m jump out on Sep 26 at Sandown quite comfortably, backing that up with a smart win in Heat 4 on Oct 12. He was slowly away, but slowly edged his way forward before being asked for an effort at the top of the straight where he responded and bolted away. He was 5th on debut with some nice form coming from that race, the winner running 2nd at Flemington at his next start while 2nd and 3rd have since won MDN’s while 4th has been placed twice since. He was $31 that day so we might get another nice price first up where he’d be worth a spec.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 2

#9 DELICATE BABY (13) - J Welsh

Low/Medium.

Drawn horribly with barrier 13 of 13 but she might have barrier issues which would explain why she's with Julien Welsh, had so many jump outs and why the barrier blanket is on here so wonder if she goes in last because she has the wide barrier? If so, maybe it's a blessing.

Her jump outs are more than good enough to win a maiden and she's had plenty of them, so should be no queries on fitness - it's those potential barrier issues and the wide barrier that are the big queries.


Regardless, she looks well placed here. RUNSIR looks the one to beat and suspect they'll come for him on the home track and we likely get a better price late for this mare and we'll look to play her then.


Hoping to get around that $4 mark and ½ staking (collect 2%) her just due to the barrier and queries.

Pakenham, Race 3

#2 EMERALD JACK (4) - D & C Feek

Medium.

We were on him first up and while he didn't win, he ran well with plenty of excuses. He was slowly away and that was where the race was lost, resulted in him being back and on the fence which then led to him being held up but he still ran well to finish 3rd - he ran the meeting's fastest L400m but looked to peak late.


Second up now, step up to 1600m suits and drawn beautifully if he can jump. Looks a winnable race and we have to be on him again - if everything can go right, he'll be hard to beat.

Last Updated: 8:09am on Thursday, 10th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1055x runners | 253x winners (24%) & 288x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.16 WIN $3.02 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 62x runners | 27x wins (44%) & 17x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 54x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 17x placings (48%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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