Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 9 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WERRIBEE - Race 4
We backed CRAFT STAR on debut at Sandown where he ran well to finish 4th in a good form race now. He was tipped out and given the ultimate gear change of a gelding, returning in a Jun 7 jump out that didn’t give us any guide as they had to pull up early on the Heavy track. He then went around in Heat 5 on Jun 15 on the synthetic track where he got a perfect run leading along the rail and just cruised to the line in a super bit of work. He was a $45k purchase and is interestingly owned by Simon Zahra Racing despite being trained by Andrew Noblet, but think he has talent and is a nice mover so keen to follow him first up as a gelding now.
WERRIBEE - Race 8
DESARMER has looked superb at the jump outs this time in. He was jogging on the spot out the back in a Jun 9 jump out but then if you watch past the line, he was flying and doing his best work. He then went to Kilmore on Jun 21 on a Heavy10 track where he was put under some pressure to really bring him on. His work in Heat 9 on Jun 30 was similar to his first jump out, jogging throughout and cruising to the line. He’s got very mixed form, having the 11x starts where he’s finished in the top 4 four times, but also finishing last or second last on five occasions. If he goes to an 1100m/1200m race first up, he’s likely not a bet and one to follow second up over 1400m+ as this is where he does his best work.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
ITCHY POWDER looked super when finishing 3rd in Heat 7 on Jun 19 having settled at the rear of the field in the early stages and then powering home down the outside fence under a hold. They didn’t break any records in terms of time and the two that beat her aren’t anything special, but they don’t normally make this sort of ground on the synthetic track as the leaders usually skip away, which adds merit to the run. This was her second jump out having made the switch to the Luke Oliver yard after being purchased for only $3,750, she’s 57-rated so a 0-58 would be perfect first up.
*since changed name to Hunitchiwa.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Werribee, Race 4
#2 CRAFT STAR (4) - A Noblet
We loved the work of CRAFT STAR at the jump outs - his debut reads well and he’s been gelded since that run while given time, think he’ll run super here first up. He’ll push forward from barrier 4 and expect him to be hard to beat.
ARABIAN MELODY looked good in her latest jump out on the Heavy but the first wasn’t great - she likely stalks CRAFT STAR and looks the main danger so could be worth a saver late if she gets out further in betting.
*ARABIAN MELODY is a late scratching*
Werribee, Race 8
#17 DESARMER (10) - S Richards
Didn't think he'd make the field as the 6th emergency but a few scratchings with the heavy track and here he is - his sole career win has come on the Heavy.
JO's super and he's a big price, happy to bet!
Pakenham, Race 5
#7 HUNITCHIWA (7) - L Oliver
They’ve elected to come here instead of running Saturday, both the same track and basically the same barrier.
She’s made the switch to Luke Oliver now and looked super at the JO’s, especially that latest on the synthetic track - she hasn’t won for over 500+ days but is still lightly raced with only the 7x starts and that switch of the stable looks to have her in good order. She ran 4th in both her first up runs for the previous stable.
Happy to bet, think she can run a solid race first up in a race that has some ordinary gallopers (in saying that, she might be ordinary herself lol).
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Werribee, Race 3
#13 SIERRA DE GREDOS (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
BlackBook jump out comments:
SIERRA DE GREDOS has been a disappointment in both of his career runs to date where we’ve been on ($2.20 SP and $2.50 SP) and he was back at the jump outs following a 5-week let up in Heat 20 on Jun 26 as he bolted in over 1200m ahead of Excelman. Near impossible to trust him and he may just be a jump out star.
Werribee, Race 4
#6 ARABIAN MELODY (2) - C Maher & D Eustace
BlackBook jump out comments:
Unseen since March 2022, ARABIAN MELODY looked back to her best in Heat 8 on Jun 26 as she won comfortably over 800m while doing some nice work late as she extended to and through the line. She wasn’t great in her first jump out 3-weeks ago and may need another bit of work prior to resuming but looks to have come back nicely on the back of this at least.
Last Updated: 8:51am AEDT on Sunday, 9th July 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):