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BlackBook - Sunday, 9 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 9 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MORNINGTON - Race 3

OTHER

I Am Caviar attempted to kick away in Heat 5 on Mar 21 as he was put under a lot of pressure, but the class of #6 ELLY DEE showed late as she closed super to get over the top and win, putting a huge gap on 3rd in the process. We backed her on debut at Mornington but she was no match for Musashi (won then on a 0-64 by 4L next start) despite accounting for the rest of the field, beating 3rd by 2.25L. She then went to Cranbourne and ran 3rd to Nunthorpe (since 3rd in Group 3) and Shaime (won MDN next start) while defeating Lievor (since 1st in MDN & BM64) and Reo (since 1st in MDN & CL1), so it’s super form all around her. Hoping she has another jump out before resuming but regardless, very keen to follow her and think she’ll be hard to beat first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Mornington, Race 4

#6 ELLY DEE (1) - J Sadler

High.

Not a huge fan of only the 1x JO into the debut/first up run but this filly's JO was super and with the form coming from her debut runs, she should be running really well here.

Ben Allen rode in the JO and not surprised to see him sticking with her and he was prepared to go to Yarra Valley on Monday - she was ~$3 into a $2.20 favourite there before that got abandoned.


Meschever is a JO specialist that struggles on raceday so more than happy to risk her and the rest of the field need to improve a fair bit to win this.


She's going to be awfully hard to bet here but can't possibly take ~$1.65 with barrier 1 at Mornington, which can be a bit of a graveyard if she gets trapped.


Obviously a no bet at the price (sub-$1.70) but if she drifts to $2+, we'll bet.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Mornington, Race 3

#8 SILVER WAVES (5) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook jump out comments:

Expecting Heat 8 on Mar 6 to be a good form reference going forward. The jump out was won by a race fit GREECE, but the three 3yo filly’s who finished right behind her are all worth keeping an eye on.

Finishing 3rd in that Feb 20 and also 3rd in this heat was the 3yo Caravaggio filly in SILVER WAVES, who just has quietly gone about her business in both jump outs. She looks to move well enough to be competitive in most races on debut.

Sha Tin, Race 3

#8 RED ELEGANCE (7) - J Richards

*named Truffle King in Aus*

BlackBook jump out comments:

Another jump out win for TRUFFLE KING, the grey 3yo gelding travelling very well at the jump outs now ahead of his debut. In addition to his 2.5L win in Heat 11 on Sep 5, he has won jump outs on Jul 25 and Aug 22 (ahead of Meridius), but his official trial win was certainly the most impressive as he led from start to finish along the rail and held off a fast finishing Queen Of Nations while clocking the second fastest time of the morning alongside Riddle Me That. An $80k purchase from the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sales, this son of Toronado certainly has speed and can be prominent on debut.

Last Updated: 9:20am AEDT on Sunday, 9th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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