BlackBook - Sunday, 4 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 2 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
CASTERTON - Race 1
#9 DASHING went to the line with the 77-rated Intellective in Heat 3 on Aug 24and he had her covered quite comfortably, extending away past the line in a really solid jump out return. The 3yo Magnus gelding has had the 3x career runs for 3x placings, all three of those with Linda Meech in the saddle. He’s a gelding to keep an eye on when resuming.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Another day decimated by scratchings (including several of our BlackBook runners) with the dual Heavy(8) tracks at Geelong and Casterton, which makes betting not very enticing. We don't want to force anything as that's when you lose so happy to take it easy and look forward to next week.
Confidence - Comments
Casterton, Race 1
#9 DASHING (4) - A Purcell
This gelding's JO alongside Intellective was super and draws beautifully with Linda Meech on board - he's the clear horse to beat and really should just be winning this. The issue from a betting perspective is there has to be a slight query on fitness with a Heavy(8) track having only had 1x JO + he's ~$1.40... so he's not a betting proposition at the price. Would want $2+ at least to look at playing him, and even then, would recommend ½ staking.
Last Updated: 8:46am on Sunday, 4th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
680x runners | 204x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.26 WIN $2.31 PLC
972x runners | 223x winners (23%) & 268x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.52 WIN $3.07 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):