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BlackBook - Sunday, 4 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 4 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WERRIBEE - Race 3

OTHER

#15 SUGAR POP is certainly back in good order following a very disappointing one run prep. She was solid in her return jump out on Nov 18, but it was her work in Heat 7 on Nov 25 that certainly caught the eye as she the clear widest throughout but closed off nicely to finish 2nd to the talented Shaquero while the rest of the field behind her are all previous winners. The 4yo mare is now with Matthew Ellerton following the trainer switch of Kennedy Racing and she should be winning a maiden sooner rather than later on the back of these jump outs.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Werribee, Race 3


#15 SUGAR POP (8) - M Ellerton

Low/Medium.

Her jump outs were slick and she draws well enough with barrier 8 and is a good price, so happy to keep this simple and back her. It's an even race with plenty of chances.

She's been $15 into $6.50 as well (few deductions), so nice early support but think she might get back out late.


Playing ½ at $6.50 and ½ at SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bairnsdale, Race 6

#4 POTATO PETE (4) - R Goodwin

The big fella is flying since he stepped up to 1400m+, winning his maiden by 3.3L over 1400m before finishing 3rd in a CL1 over 1600m at Sandown to two horses that are talented in Oceana Blue and Blushing Tycoon.


We've taken him back to 0-58 grade here and keeping him at 1600m, both of which suit and so does barrier 4. He will (hopefully) jump well, go to the front and be very hard to beat!!

Werribee, Race 9

#6 ELSKLING (3) - M Freedman

BlackBook jump out comments:

ELSKLING didn’t get clear galloping room in Heat 4 on Nov 21 until the final 200m but when she finally did, she closed superbly out wide to finish 4th but if you watch past the line, she’s a couple lengths in front quite quickly and easily.


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 8:15am on Sunday, 4th December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1079x runners | 261x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $11.99 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 74x runners | 31x wins (42%) & 19x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 11x wins (17%) & 23x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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