Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 28 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BALLARAT - Race 2
OTHER
POP ROCK did everything wrong in the early stages of Heat 9 on Apr 3, fighting the jockey for most of the back straight as he raced wide throughout but once he straightened up and got into his work, he closed superbly over the concluding stages to win. He was put under some slight pressure from the jockey but looked to really respond, extending late and really attacking the line, a really nice debut jump out from this 3yo son of Shamus Award. He’ll likely have another bit of work before debuting but he looks to be one we want to be following.
POP ROCK clearly has a lot to learn as he was non-stop fighting the jockey in the early stages of both of his jump outs. He finished off really nicely from the back in his Apr 3 jump out on the grass but did it a bit different in a small field in Heat 4 on Apr 17 on the synthetic track, leading and being urged to finish off from the front. We would’ve liked to see him kick away from Bao Bun considering she’s a 5-start maiden but she was keeping with him, even making up ground late without being put under pressure. Thought this jump out was just a pass which is a shame considering how good his first jump out was, but maybe he didn’t like the synthetic track?
A third jump out now for POP ROCK having won previous jump outs on Apr 3 and Apr 17, he was 2nd in Heat 7 on May 1 where he was again ridden on speed and asked to close off. He wasn’t a standout, but was still good as they set a good pace (as shown by the time being the quickest of the morning) and he didn’t look to be going backwards late, going on with it past the line. He’ll certainly be forward enough on debut now having had the three jump outs, so he’s certainly one to keep a close eye on.
POP ROCK has to be ready to go to the races now, his win in Heat 9 on May 9 marking his fourth jump out this prep following wins on Apr 3 and Apr 17 and a 2nd placing on May 1. He’s still doing a lot wrong, fighting the jockey for much of this heat as he wanted to run and go on with it, which is going to be a worry on debut but he does look like he has some speed (clocked the fastest 760m time of the morning), so he’s certainly one to keep an eye on for when he does get to the track.
Thought the I Am Invincible gelding in IRRESISTIBLE FORCE moved well while leading throughout to win Heat 6 on May 1. He had company throughout the entirety of the jump out but still looked to be comfortable and doing it within himself, a good sign for only his first jump out this prep. He was a $180k purchase back in 2021 and connections have been very patient with him as he did have three jump outs a year ago but didn’t get to the racetrack, with his full-sister selling for $500k in the meantime. He’s a 3yo to keep an eye on.
HORSHAM - Race 2
OTHER
We were on FRENCH WITNESS on debut and while she finished 3rd, she was held up a bit at a crucial stage so may of had an excuse. She was tipped out, returning in Heat 8 on May 18 for her first jump out and back and it was a solid bit of work as she won ahead of Soonali (7: 2-0-1) and Rivivy Kenz (24: 2-1-3), both of whom aren’t blessed with a stack of ability but have won races and she looked to have a bit on them, especially late as she really attacked the line. Keeping a close eye on her.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Ballarat, Race 2 | |
#8 POP ROCK (2) - G Eurell | Medium. Expecting him to go straight to the front from barrier 2 and while the 1000m suits, a bit worried about how he’ll be over the L200m or so. He’s had 4x JO’s so will certainly be forward enough but he still does a bit wrong and if we look at his jump outs, only one was over 800m where he led and was ridden out to win, but Bao Bun was making ground late with ease. In saying that, he put in a nice bit of work on a Heavy track in the JO's and with the map of him going forward in an ordinary race, he should be running well so happy to bet. |
#5 IRRESISTIBLE FORCE (3) - M Cumani | Low/Medium. John Allen has scarred us from Friday and considering this gelding has looked good in his JO's, think we have to have a saver on him to breakeven. |
Horsham, Race 2 | |
#10 FRENCH WITNESS (7) - A Bobbin | Low/Medium. Still think she should’ve won on debut when we were on her. She returns here on the back of a slick JO, albeit only 1x JO, and finds a winnable race that lacks some depth. The heavy track is also a query though. We want to be with her, but with a few queries, we're going to ½ stake (bet to collect 2%/2u). |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Ballarat, Race 3 #10 LUNA ANGEL (1) - A Purcell | BlackBook jump out comments: LUNA ANGEL has some ordinary form but she looks to have taken some improvement since that debut prep and improved now into her second prep. She was well held in a May 11 jump out alongside She's Ternacious (since 5th in MDN) and then backed that up in a nice bit of work in Heat 3 on May 22 when winning ahead of The Deputy in the fastest 1000m time of the morning. She’ll need an easy maiden and we’d like to get a price but want to keep an eye on her. |
Sunshine Coast, Race 4 #10 LOVE TONIGHT (14) - A & S Freedman | BlackBook jump out comments: It wasn’t the same super jump out from LOVE TONIGHT in Heat 5 on Apr 26, the 3yo filly having to be hard ridden for much of the final stages and she didn’t really show any big turn of foot as she’s threatened to show in the past, which is a bit disappointing. We’ve always had a big opinion of her so this has poured some cold water but she’s still one to monitor, hopefully one more jump out prior to that debut. |
Last Updated: 10:28am AEDT on Sunday, 28th May 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
