Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 27 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BAIRNSDALE - Race 2
OTHER
#8 PERI PERI RICH was way too good for them in her return jump out, taking out Heat 6 on Mar 16 by a comfortable margin with relative ease in the third fastest time of the morning. The lightly raced 4yo mare sat midfield but really extended away late over the concluding stages under minimal pressure. She finished 5th on debut at an SP of $3 but not a lot went right, held up at vital stages but did get home in the meetings 6th fastest L400m. Only her first jump out this prep, one to monitor.
BAIRNSDALE - Race 3
OTHER
The 3yo filly #11 BOTANY dropped to the back of the field in Heat 4 on Mar 16 before extending away to win over Denims with a big gap back to 3rd. As a 2yo, she finished 2nd to Pounding on Jan 6 and then 2nd again on Apr 13, this time to a very talented Gimmie Par which is very good jump out form from her 2yo year. This was her first jump out this preparation and was certainly good enough to suggest she has some talent. Might be a nice filly for Coolmore.
BALLARAT - Race 2
OTHER
#12 HOT AND STRONG made a nice return to the jump outs, taking out Heat 15 on Jan 28 as she led from start to finish to win in nice time. She looked to do it really easily and went through the line well. The 3yo filly had a pair of jump outs back on Aug 9, up the straight behind Linas Legend and Mars Mission, and on Sep 23, where she tired late behind Narvaez and Dream Queen, but didn’t get to the races. Expect her to have another jump out prior to her debut, but she is certainly one on our watch list.
OTHER RUNNERS - NSW
Ballarat, Race 1 - #4 GULF OF LION (3) - Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Mar 14 (Warwick Farm) - fastest time of the ~810m heats - went forward from out wide, travelling 3-wide without cover and then kicked away around the bend to win by 3.67L comfortably - class above.
OUR THOUGHTS
Bairnsdale, Race 2 - PERI PERI RICH
Slight query on fitness having only had the 1x 800m jump out but barrier 4 is a lovely draw and she looks well placed. Brian Park rode in the jump out and heads to Bairnsdale for only the one ride on this 4yo mare.
Very winnable race - there is only 1x last start rating that is below +12.0, being DELIVERY MAN with a +4.6 but that run was an outlier compared to his previous 5x runs this prep.
She should be running well and going close to winning this, we just have a query on the 1x jump out and maybe barrier 4 might get problematic if she doesn't take up a forward position over the 1000m at Bairnsdale. At the price and with som slight queries, we're going to have just the 1 unit on.
Bairnsdale, Race 3 - BOTANY
Looks a really nice filly but just not keen to get involved at ~$1.60 - this is a winnable race and she's the clear one to beat, we just can't justify getting involved at the price.
Ballarat, Race 2 - HOT AND STRONG
Keen on this 3yo filly on debut here and Nick Ryan is absolutely flying, going at 24% for his L50 runners while Rhys McLeod is quietly going at 16% for his L50 rides. She's accepted for Benalla on Tuesday with barrier 4 but Blaike MacDougall is booked to ride instead due to the weight of 56kg there vs 57kg here (Rhys can't make the 56kg weight) - very glad she's going here instead.
She had a couple of nice jump outs as an early 3yo, potentially gearing up for a spring campaign but didn't quite get to the track. Given more time, she returned for a super jump out win at Flemington ahead of Ice Burj in 2nd (who has since ran 3rd in a MDN), Hinto Blue in 3rd (since only 3L off a pair of BM64's) and Hameron in 4th (won a MDN first up).
She was given more time before being taken for a cheeky jump out on the back straight at Kilmore on Mar 11 where she again looked super despite being very well restrained throughout. Barrier 9 isn't the greatest draw, but we're expecting a nice debut here. She likely goes forward from the barrier to take luck out of the equation and she looks a lovely mover.
Doesn't have to be a superstar to win this - the best peak rating of the race is +5.5 by BOLD TROPIC, while the best last start rating is +7.2 by HERITAGE DANCE . SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH is probably the main danger (post scratchings) with the blinkers going on for the first time having finished 2nd, 4th and 2nd in three runs this prep - will be at peak fitness now fourth up with that key gear change. WHISPERING TYCOON was the main danger but he's already ran and won at Avoca on Saturday by 3.5L, so scratched here (obviously).
It's a winnable race and we're happy to play HOT AND STRONG.
We mentioned her yesterday for people to monitor markets - she opened $5.50 most places (TAB, Bet365), so hopefully a few of us got the early price - we didn't personally get the early price as we were out Saturday afternoon.
At the current quote of ~$2.80, would probably expect them to come a little for SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH as $3 or so looks about the right price for HOT AND STRONG. We'll play ½ on Fixed and ½ on SP.
Ballarat, Race 3 - MAKTASTIC
The 4yo gelding makes his way over to Aus from NZ with Emma-Lee & David Browne’s switch to Cranbourne, resuming here after a 10-week let up and a lovely jump out over 1400m on Mar 15 where he went to the line with Jungle Magnate and a big gap to 3rd with Jungle Magnate since winning first up at Mornington on Saturday over 1600m in a $150k 3YO-SWP race. This gelding goes to a maiden over 1500m.
His last four runs have resulted in 3x 2nd’s and 1x 3rd, all over 2000m+ so the 1500m might even be short of his best. We don’t have any ratings from any of his NZ runs, but on the back of his jump out, he can run well here in his Aus debut.
BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS
We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 3.00 units.
Bairnsdale, Race 2
PERI PERI RICH ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)
Ballarat, Race 2
HOT AND STRONG ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $2.90 (TopSport)
HOT AND STRONG ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +5.61 units at Recommend Price | +39.62 units at Betfair SP
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