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BlackBook - Sunday, 26 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 26 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BAIRNSDALE - Race 3

OTHER

#10 GARNET went straight to the front in Heat 10 on Mar 14 and bolted in, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. The 3yo filly has yet to beat a runner home in both career runs and did jump at a $101 SP last start, so not a lot of substance behind her raceday performances but she did finish 3rd on Feb 27 behind subsequent BM64 winner Unlimited Magic in a previous jump out as well, so maybe she can run an improved race.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bairnsdale, Race 3

#10 GARNET (7) - J Welsh

Low/Medium.

Her first two career runs were horrible but she's made the switch to J Welsh, which indicates she has had some barrier issues, and has jumped out super ahead of her return to the races.


She's shown a stack of speed so it wouldn't surprise to see her bolt forward here and give them something to catch.


This race has really dropped away post-scratchings so we're not getting much in terms of price, but still want to be with her as those JO's were super.

Backing ½ now at $6 and the other ½ at SP as it wouldn't surprise to see her get out in price closer to the jump.

Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Sunday, 26th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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