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BlackBook - Sunday, 26 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 26 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 2

OTHER

Shane Fliedner could have a nice 3yo on his hands in #1 ALLOCATE. He was 2nd to the 2yo Celui in a Dec 6 jump out, that colt winning on debut, before then running 4th on Jan 20 where he was actually quite poor. He was given a freshen up and returned for an official trial on Jan 11 where he sat outside the leader in Dinga before being ridden out and extending away really nicely, winning by 3L with a massive further 8L gap back to third. He didn’t have the same sort of space in Heat 2 on Feb 2 despite clearly being the best away, restrained to take a sit along the fence and only getting out really late along the inside but exploding to the front to win late. He looks to have a ripper turn of foot and expect him to be near the lead on debut so he’s one we can follow on debut. He goes well.


BALLARAT - Race 3

OTHER

Lovely first jump out of the preparation from #4 BELMASAI, coming over the top of the speedy and leading Sharna Star late in Heat 7 on Jan 24 to win in the fastest 800m time of the morning, putting a big gap on 3rd place too. This was only his first jump out this preparation having had another jump out in a previous prep on Sep 13 that saw him finish 2nd to Vegas Diva (who then ran 2nd in a MDN and 1st in a BM58) while ahead of Margie’s Boy in 4th, who won on debut. We’ll need to see another jump out from the 3yo son of Bel Esprit, but this was an encouraging performance especially considering he was only a $14k purchase.


#6 FIELDS OF FRANCE is a 6-start maiden that has had four jump outs and three race starts this prep, so she certainly has the benefit of some fitness but with the blinkers on in Heat 2 on Feb 21, she put in quite a nice bit of work as she went forward along the rail to win quite comfortably over the 800m. She’s never placed in those 6x career starts so there isn’t much expectation but hoping we can have a small bet at a big price fourth up with those blinkers going on.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 2

#1 ALLOCATE (4) - S Fliedner

Medium.

Scratched from Moonee Valley on Friday night to look at an easier race here but it's not exactly a 'shit' maiden at the same time, harder than his debut.


We liked him way too much on debut to be jumping off, we can go again. The horse that beat him got a bit better run and had some race fitness following a first up run at Flemington, so think the form is solid enough and think Harry Coffey can get him in a prominent position from B4.


We'll be with him again here and like the $5+ available.

Ballarat, Race 3

Backing BELMASAI and FIELDS OF FRANCE for even returns.

#4 BELMASAI (6) - J Sadler

High.

He run super on debut despite being held up from the 400m to the 200m and copping a check, flashing home late to finish 2nd.

He steps to 1100m here and draws nicely with barrier 6 having been scratched from Yarra Valley on Saturday.


Knife Talk has been hidden, given a very quiet time at the JO's and looks to be the danger.


Our gelding is going to be very hard to beat here and very happy to have him on top.

The issue is the price, we can't take $1.60 so we'll wait and play late, try get closer to $2 ($1.80+) but if he stays at $1.60 or below, we'll leave it.

#6 FIELDS OF FRANCE (7) - C Griffiths

Low.

Low confidence but that JO talks - blinkers go on and she's race fit, so at the huge price we can back her.


The $31+ this morning is a nice price (likely gets out late too) and we can double bet with Belmasai.

Last Updated: 9:11am AEDT on Sunday, 26th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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