BlackBook - Sunday, 25 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 25 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
NARACOORTE - Race 3
Following her easy win at Donald on Sep 12, #5 CENTREFOLDSTAR recorded another easy win in Heat 3 on Sep 19 over the 900m. It’s hard to get too enthused about her considering she was a beaten $1.60 favourite on debut back in Feb, but she did pull up with a slow recovery so she had excuses and she has had the stable change to Tom Dabernig, who places his horses very well. A pair of nice jump outs ahead of her return, both on Heavy tracks, she can run well first up for the new stable.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Naracoorte, Race 3
#5 CENTREFOLDSTAR (10) - T Dabernig
Didn't think we'd see her pop up in a Maiden at Naracoorte in SA, but can't complain considering this will be easier than most maidens she'll get this time of year in VIC. Jump outs were good and she should be giving a really good sight here - if she can't win here, she'll struggle to win a maiden in VIC.
The horse that comfortably beat Sweet Rock Candy in the latest trial came out and ran 4th - iffy form - and Final Jedi is a 7-start maiden with not much scope for improvement.
She was a $1.60 SP favourite on debut, so it wouldn't surprise to see her get backed late here and the ~$2.50 looks good to take. Keen to be with her.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sandown, Race 6
#4 WALTZ ON BY (8) - P Moody
We've been on her for her first two runs this preparation and we're on her for the Thousand Guineas, so certainly hoping she runs well here third up at 1400m before then heading to that Thousand Guineas on Oct 12 in 2 ½ weeks.
She beat the boys last start and drops back to the girls here - think she has the measure of most of these and if she's as good as we think, she is the clear one to beat. Happy to be with her again until she gives us a reason not to be...
Last Updated: 9:07am on Sunday, 25th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
999x runners | 235x winners (24%) & 275x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.33 WIN $3.04 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):