BlackBook - Sunday, 19 March 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 19 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SWAN HILL - Race 1
#10 SURFY PETE finished 6L last on debut on a Heavy(10) track at Warracknabeal and as a result was given a break and gelded. His return trial on Jan 11 was terrible where he was given another freshen up, so wonder if there was an issue there as his work in Feb 3 (when cruising out the back) and especially his work in Heat 8 on Feb 23 were slick. He drops out to the back, which was no different here as he cruised out the back before getting the gaps in the straight and closing really nicely to finish a close 2nd, making up good ground late. His racing pattern is a bit of a worry, as is that first trial but his work here was nice enough to warrant following first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Swan Hill, Race 1
#10 SURFY PETE (3) - A Coffey
Not a great sign that Harry Coffey is on the Maher/Eustace horse here and then the rest of his rides are for A Coffey… but still thought this geldings jump outs were pretty good and the latest over 1000m was nice.
Ignore his debut on a Heavy10 track, he’s been gelded since and given a bit more time so he can improve a bit here on the back of his jump outs. Drawn barrier 3 as well, hopefully he doesn’t settle too far back and the big Swan Hill straight will (hopefully) give him every chance late.
Having a bet, backing ½ now at $8.50-$9 and the other ½ late/SP.
Last Updated: 9:17am AEDT on Sunday, 19th March 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):