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BlackBook - Sunday, 18 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 18 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


HORSHAM - Race 1

OTHER

A super jump out from #10 FRENCH WITNESS, taking out Heat 3 on Dec 9 where she got a lovely run with cover along the rail throughout before popping out to the middle of the track around the bend and coming home really nicely while under a strong hold, albeit clocking slow time for the morning. The 3yo Star Witness filly won a previous jump out on Dec 1 as well where she got a similar run but was pushed out late to win. She’s looked nice at the jump outs and can run well on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Horsham, Race 1


#10 FRENCH WITNESS (2) - A Bobbin

Medium.

He's drawn beautifully to get a lovely run throughout and this looks a nice race to debut in.

His JO's were slick and although the latest lacked the substance in terms of time (it was slow), it was a lovely tick over to get him primed for today having been pushed out in his first JO.


We messaged yesterday in the Telegram to put ½ our stake on at $5, so hopefully a few have a nice price for ½ the stake. For the other ½ (or whole stake if you missed), we'll look to play around ~$3.50 which looks about right for him.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Werribee, Race 1

#7 BLUFF POINT (6) - L Kennewell

BlackBook jump out comments:

We don’t usually mention the short 650m jump outs but BLUFF POINT was absolutely bolting for a run in Heat 1 on Dec 5 and it was her third jump out this preparation following a very quiet Nov 21 jump out and a similar Nov 28 jump out. In her last two jump outs, the 3yo daughter of Capitalist has sat out the back searching for runs and once they have appeared, showing a lovely turn of foot but it was also against 2yo’s here, so treading carefully.


No bet recommended.

Sha Tin, Race 2

#6 HUGE WIN (8) - F Lor

BlackBook jump out comments:

The win of the un-named Michael Kent horse in Heat 10 on Nov 22 was almost as good as you’ll see at the jump outs. He’s an un-named 3yo colt under the breeding HEADWATER x OVERBLIK and he was simply way too good. He jumped beautifully from the inside barrier, took up the lead along the rail and then kicked away in the straight while under no jockey pressure. He did it with ease and a bit of class, and he clocked the third fastest 800m time of the morning in the process. His first jump out on Nov 8 was also really nice, even though he finished 5th, he was very hard held and only 1-2L off the winner. He’s a must follow this colt - super jump out.


Comments:

He jumped out under his breeding in VIC but was then moved to QLD, named POWELL, bolted in a Doomben trial and then went over to Hong Kong. Loved his VIC jump outs and was a big fan of him in Aus!!


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 9:00am on Sunday, 18th December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1101x runners | 268x winners (24%) & 301x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.01 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 42x runners | 25x wins (60%) & 11x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 80x runners | 34x wins (43%) & 20x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 76x runners | 16x wins (21%) & 24x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

Hozzászólások


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