Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 14 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
GEELONG - Race 1
OTHER
Arrogant look between the legs from the jockey of #7 GREEK TYCOON in the straight of Heat 11 on Oct 25 after he led from start to finish and won quite comfortably. This follows an Oct 11 jump out behind subsequent MDN winner Moon And Back and ahead of Charing Ahead, noting that he didn’t have the blinkers on in this jump out. He didn’t break the clock, but still a nice win.
#11 REBELLIOUS BELLE’s Oct 1 jump out on the synthetic was just fair, but her jump out back on the grass was super as she just kept extending away to win Heat 9 on Oct 15 by several lengths. She didn’t break any records time wise, but regardless, the un-raced 4yo mare moved well enough here to suggest she can go well once she finally does make her debut.
DONALD - Race 3
OTHER
Margin wise, SOUND BUFF was an easy winner of Heat 6 on Oct 11 but thought the 5yo mare back in 4th did it extremely easy to the line and looked super to the line. A full-sister to Hunamosa, #11 HUNSANGEL just cruised throughout this heat and went to the line untouched while those around her weren’t doing it as easily. We’ve seen this mare at a few jump outs now, the latest prior to this was on Jul 12 when 2nd to a ridden out Major Impact. Only her first jump out, keeping an eye on her.
OUR THOUGHTS
Geelong, Race 1 - GREEK TYCOON + REBELLIOUS BELLE
You can put a line through most of these runners as it looks a race between the top two in the market (top four maybe but really only two).
THE BALLET DANCER (48.97s), REBELLIOUS BELLE (49.99s) and GREAT WEEK (49.21s) all jumped out on Oct 15 at Flemington. GREAT WEEK (48.94s) and THE BALLET DANCER (48.16s) then jumped out again on Nov 1. Couldn’t have GREAT WEEK and thought THE BALLET DANCER was the pick of these three before he got scratched, although REBELLIOUS BELLE wasn't far behind and does now have the race fitness.
REDLINE brings in the clear best last start rating at +6.5, with GREEK TYCOON second at +12.0. Not too sure about REDLINE’s form though, with the 2nd horse going to Bendigo last week and starting $21.
GREEK TYCOON was scratched from a race at Warrnambool earlier last week with a wide barrier, running here instead and draw's a lot nicer with barrier 6. He has jumped out super, but the worry is how far he gets back.
REBELLIOUS BELLE was meant to go forward on debut but was trapped wide - expect her to go forward from barrier 1 and either be leading or at worst behind the leader with a lovely run.
It looks a race between GREEK TYCOON and REBELLIOUS BELLE - one will go forward and one will get back, but there is just no value in the $2.30/$2.40 they're both at this morning. We'll have to leave this one with no bets - if we had to choose one, GREEK TYCOON on top but only just.
Donald, Race 3 - HUNSANGEL
Her sister (Hunamosa) was better over 1400m+, so it certainly was no surprise to see the 1100m on debut be way too short for HUNSANGEL, especially after only the one jump out heading into it. She was away poorly and just always out the back, never travelling well with the speed that was on, however, she made very good ground late and actually ran the second fastest L400m and L200m of the race behind a very smart Out Of Isolation. She ran a 12.22s L200m vs 12.12s (which was the 10th fastest of the day).
The debut run rated +8.3, which is the fourth best last start benchmark rating coming this and not far behind the best rating of +5.8 from MAGIC CITY and JAMES THE GREAT at +6.3. She steps up from 1100m to 1350m here second up, which certainly suits along with barrier 3 allowing her to get a nice run throughout. Expecting a much improved run here.
We posted her early before markets when up anticipating her opening up at overs - she opened at $21 and was very quickly backed in to $8 in a matter of minutes, with $6.50 now available race morning. Hopefully a few of us got some of the better price as we certainly didn't...
Happy to be with her today still, think she can run well and the track coming up a Soft5 is a good result considering the rain that has been around Melbourne. Think she's a very good winning chance and at worst should be placing.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Donald, Race 3
HUNSANGEL ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $6.50 (TAB & Bet365 at 9:10am)
Overall: +3.38 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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