BlackBook - Sunday, 13 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 13 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 1

#10 WHITTEN (6) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

His first jump out on Oct 10 was only fair at best, but not a lot went right. The improvement he took into his Oct 24 jump out though was immense, he trucked into it like a really nice horse as if he was going to explode to the lead and win but was kept under wraps to finish 3rd.


This looks a winnable race. Thornycroft is in a similar boat - first JO on Oct 14 was okay but did make good ground, like his latest JO - looks like he'll need some distance and likely gets back from barrier 12. Nothing else has been any standout at the jump outs either - Regulus only fair, Kurolation was okay. Crazy needs to improve but does get blinkers.


He was a $300k purchase and is a half-brother to the talented Chicago Cub. Happy to have a bet on him here - if we didn't get the ~$7+ in early markets, can still back at the $5.50+ this morning - he's a nice E/W price still.

Confidence: Medium.

Last Updated: 8:32am on Sunday, 13th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1057x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 289x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.14 WIN $3.02 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 28x wins (44%) & 17x placings (70%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 55x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 18x placings (49%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB