BlackBook - Sunday, 11 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 11 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


SALE - Race 1

OTHER

The gelding certainly looks to have switched #3 KATSU on. He started a $3.70 second favourite on debut where he finished a disappointing 8th of 8, a race won by Cannonball with recent maiden winner Squad 2nd that day. He was spelled and gelded, returning for a quiet 3rd in an official trial on Aug 9 prior to his work in Heat 8 on Aug 29 where he travelled wide on-speed throughout before opening up a huge margin over the final 250m when he was put under pressure. It’s always good to see them respond to riding in their second jump out so we know there is something under the hood, so this was very encouraging and he can make a better return to the races now as a gelding.


SAVANNAH CLOUD has no put together two nice jump out wins, taking out Heat 3 on Aug 23 over the 1000m in the fastest time of the morning. Going to the line with him was an un-raced 3yo colt in #5 THE BRILL BUILDING, having his second jump out this preparation as he looks to gear up for a spring campaign where he holds a Caulfield Guineas nomination. He cruised to the line in a previous Aug 10 jump out over 750m, leading from start to finish there. He did similar in this heat as well, stepping up to 1000m but had company in the form of a nice 5yo gelding in Savannah Cloud with a nice gap back to 3rd. He looks in nice order ahead of his debut and he has a good base now.


SALE - Race 2

OTHER

#9 CANNON cruised to the line in an Aug 26 jump out, his first this prep as a gelding, but it was his work in Heat 6 on Sep 2 that really caught the eye. He was forced to go to settle at the back of the field out wide, which he didn’t like as he threw the head around, but once he settled in the straight and was allowed to stride out in the straight, he looked a really nice mover going past the likes of Gulf Of Saros and Let'srollthedice. Forget his debut when lame, his last start 2nd to Prairie Flower now reads well. He’s a nice moving Written Tycoon gelding that we can follow.

#10 CUSTODIAN was due to resume during the week but assume he was scratched due to the wet weather. Prior to that race he had jump outs on Jul 27 and Aug 8, the latest up the straight at Flemington alongside the 5yo mare Versilia. He was back at the jump outs for a tick over run, taking out Heat 16 on Aug 19 comfortably in slick time with (who we think is) Mark Zahra on board. He looks to be a nice mover and connections will certainly be hoping so, being a half-brother to the $1.9M colt Profondo as a $1.15M purchase in 2021 himself. He looks a talented colt and certainly has a maiden in him before he potentially heads to a Caulfield Guineas in the hope of being a top colt.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 1

Backing KATSU - not keen on THE BRILL BUILDING following his latest jump out.

TWEETED is the one that can run well at a price and might be worth a saver to breakeven at $17+ - jump out on Aug 25 here at Sale was good...

#3 KATSU (7) - G Begg

Medium.

He's been gelded with a host of other gear changes following a disappointing debut when $3.70 SP. Has jumped out super ahead of his return here and should get a lovely run from barrier 7 as Jordan Childs only ride for the day. He's our on top selection.

#5 THE BRILL BUILDING (1) - P Stokes

Low.

His latest jump out on Aug 30 was poor so that has really dimmed the confidence and on the back of that, happy to not back him here and let him go around, especially at sub-$3.

Sale, Race 2

CUSTODIAN clear on top selection and should win - saver on CANNON to breakeven (plus a little profit).

#9 CANNON (10) - M, W & J Hawkes

Low/Medium.

His jump outs were nice and we're expecting him to run well and make a solid return - if anyone is going to knock Custodian off, it's likely to be him but it's hard to have him on top ahead of Custodian so he looks more an E/W (place) chance.

#10 CUSTODIAN (1) - A & S Freedman

High.

His return has had some sort of build up, this being his 5th or 6th race accepted in over the past couple of weeks. He won't get a much better set up - should go forward from barrier 1 and get a lovely run throughout with the big Sale straight. Clear horse to beat.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sha Tin, Race 3

#5 VICTOR THE WINNER (5) - C Shum

He jumped out in Aus under under his breeding, with our Weekly Review notes as follows:


​His first jump out back on Dec 29 was okay when 2nd but he did defeat subsequent winner in Wolflands who was 3rd. It was hard to ignore the un-named Greg Eurell trained TORONADO x NOETIC in his big win in Heat 11 on Jan 17 in the fastest 800m time of the morning. He was away poorly but was given a push to boot up along the inside and take up the lead along the rail and was too strong late. He’s a full-brother to Intellective and this was a nice bit of work ahead of his debut.

Sha Tin, Race 5

#8 WAYFOONG LEGEND (2) - D Hayes

He jumped out in Aus under the name Goodifwecould, with our Weekly Review notes as follows:


GOODIFWECOULD looked a bit green as he won Heat 2 on Jan 13 over the 1100m despite this being his fourth jump out this preparation. He was a quiet 3rd on Dec 6 prior to wins on Dec 15 over 950m and on Dec 29 over 1000m. He’s by Cable Bay out of a mare that won her only race over 2050m, so no doubt he’ll get out over some distance. One to watch.

Last Updated: 8:50am on Sunday, 11th September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

682x runners | 206x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.25 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

977x runners | 226x winners (23%) & 268x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.48 WIN $3.06 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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