BlackBook - Sunday, 10 July 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 10 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
BALLARAT - Race 1
#2 GORMLEY was ordinary in his Jun 10 jump out at Werribee on a Soft track, but really improved into his second jump out as he moved over to the synthetic track, winning Heat 9 on Jun 24 in the second fastest time of the day and the third fastest overall time we have recorded. In typical Gai Waterhouse fashion, he went to the front and led from start to finish along the rail and was really going on with it through and past the line, with the jockey even having a look over the shoulder. He had no head gear here, so keep an eye out for the blinkers going on as well but this jump out in isolation was slick, his previous not so much but we’ll still follow into a debut.
WODONGA - Race 2
#1 TIFOSI had a previous jump out on Feb 18 where he was no match for the talented 3yo Fire. The 2yo gelding was put away following this, returning in Heat 6 on Jun 17 where he technically finished last of 6x runners, but he was only 2-3L off the winner and was extremely hard held throughout. This was a super return jump out where they clocked the fourth fastest time of the morning and he has a very noticeable first owner, his trainer Mr A Freedman. This son of Menari is one to watch.
*he was given a bigger hit out on Jul 1 when 2nd, which will really bring him on for his debut now.
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 1
#2 GORMLEY (10) - G Waterhouse & A Bott
Expected to see the synthetic, but instead he debuts on the turf. Craig Newitt on board signals intent to go forward and lead. Heavy track also a query as that Werribee JO on wet was ordinary. We'll be ½ staking here - think it's best to wait until closer to the jump to play, the ~$3 is a bit skinny and scared of Nijiko (JO behind Tuvalu was nice).
Wodonga, Race 2
#1 TIFOSI (5) - A & S Freedman
This is a very winnable race for his debut and expect him to be hard to beat here. Market wise, it's even but he's clearly jumped out the best for us and just needs to bring that JO form here to be the one to beat.
Last Updated: 9:51am on Sunday, 10th July 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
669x runners | 201x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.31 PLC
884x runners | 196x winners (22%) & 240x placings (49%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.06 WIN $3.14 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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