BlackBook - Saturday, 5 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 5 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

#6 MIDTOWN BOSS was solid in 2nd place in Heat 4 on Oct 28, a jump out won by trial star Yulong Command while ahead of Not An Option and Zac De Boss, which is really good company for a 3yo maiden and he looked to hold his own. The 3yo son of Street Boss debuted back in July on a Heavy(8) track where he finished 4th behind Atmosphere, Fast Witness (won her next two starts) and Street Conqueror (won next start by 2.8L) - he clocked the meetings second fastest L200m that day and was clearly doing his best work late. He was quietly ridden and untouched in a previous Oct 21 jump out and looks in good order ahead of his return. He hasn’t been fully tested, but he has done it on raceday before so he’s worth following first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 2

#6 MIDTOWN BOSS (13) - M & L Kavanagh

Medium.

His form is certainly good enough to run well here, add in some nice JO's and he looks in good order ahead of his return. The big issue is barrier 13 of 13 but he may be too classy for this lot and it certainly will mean he's got clear air late.

Think he gets out in price late, just with that barrier and the ~$2.50 this morning looking skinny. Backing him here, but playing SP or very late as she should get to $3+ at a minimum.

Last Updated: 8:09am on Saturday, 5th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1049x runners | 252x winners (24%) & 285x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.02 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 34x runners | 23x wins (68%) & 7x placings (88%)

Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 26x wins (44%) & 16x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 53x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 16x placings (47%)

Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB