BlackBook - Saturday, 30 July 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 30 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


THE VALLEY - Race 2

OTHER

#7 KEYSBOROUGH is obviously a nice colt based on breeding, but he's also shown talent at the jump outs. He had a quiet Feb 25 jump out before strutting his stuff in a Mar 4 jump out where he defeated Cannonball, who then came out and won a MDN by 1.75L and then won the Listed Redoute's Choice Stakes at Caulfield. He was nominated for the big Group 1 races including the Inglis Sires, but connections elected to give him more time and are obviously targeting the Spring. He's only had the 1x jump out, cruising to the line in 3rd place on Jul 15 behind Chester Warrior (since 3rd to Thron Bone and River Ribble). He's by I Am Invincible out of Oscietra, a daughter of Black Caviar and races in those salmon silks and there will certainly be lofty expectations of this colt.

That’s two nice jump out wins now for #8 PRADO, taking out a Jul 1 jump out before another nice win in Heat 8 on Jul 22. He’s got a friendly racing pattern, having led in both of his jump outs and being clearly too strong late. He was a beaten $1.40 SP favourite on debut where he had every chance, which isn’t confidence building ahead of this prep but he does look to have come back improved. Worth following to see where he goes.


THE VALLEY - Race 3

OTHER

#1 BISTRO put together an absolutely superb jump out in her return, taking out Heat 4 on Jul 22 by several lengths as she ran away from some talented 2yo’s in Hell Hath No Fury and Crosswinds. She’s clearly a talented filly be featuring throughout the spring in some nice races. It looked as though Jamie Kah was on board as the filly clocked the third fastest time of the morning in the process. One to monitor ahead of her return.

Liked the way #4 WRITTEN SWOOSH closed down the outside of the track in Heat 6 on Jul 18, winning in 1:06.52s which was nice time for the morning and only slightly below the fastest time of the morning at 1:06.05s ran by Ancestry. The 2yo filly drifted to the rear of the field, just cruising out the back a good 2-3L off them before showing her class late as she rounded them up with ease to win without ever being asked for an effort. A $340k buy from the MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale back in 2021 as a half to ex-stablemate Brazen Boy where Phillip Stokes recently bought the half-brother by Trapeze Artist for $850k… so he clearly has a big opinion of the family. She was 2nd on debut at Caulfield to Miss Roseiano, who’s a talented filly and on the back of this slick 1000m jump out, she should be going well first up this prep.


ROSEHILL - Race 8

OTHER

#1 GOLD TRIP has had his fair share of controversy but there is no doubt that he’s talented, putting together a superb jump out in his first bit of work this prep, winning Heat 14 on Jun 14 over the 1000m with ease. If he finally gets to the races for his Australian debut, he’s a talented 5yo.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

The Valley, Race 2

#7 KEYSBOROUGH (3) - M, W & J Hawkes

Medium.

Obviously a well bred colt and doubt the Hawkes yard would be wasting any of his runs - expecting a big debut and happy to be with him here to find out how good he is, especially with the bonus back offers.

#8 PRADO (1) - A & S Freedman

Low/Medium.

Barrier 1 and he's been leading in the trials, so will likely go straight to the front and try to run em off their feet. He might be worth a saver bet but would prefer to be with Keysborough here.

The Valley, Race 3

Not a race we're keen to bet into, it looks very even and we have a few runners so will sit back and watch.

#1 BISTRO (4) - A & S Freedman

Low/Medium.

#4 WRITTEN SWOOSH (8) - P Stokes

Low/Medium.

Rosehill, Race 8

#1 GOLD TRIP (11) - C Maher & D Eustace

Low.

He's giving 7-8kg to the entire field and the heavy track is a bit of query so makes it hard to bet into him. Cross Talk is flying and looks the deserved favourite. If backing, look to ½ stake with the track conditions and big weight.

WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

The Valley, Race 3

#3 VA VIA (10) - J Cummings

She won a Jul 18 Hawkesbury trial by ~3L in the fastest 1000m time of the morning (59.55s), showing a tremendous turn of foot down the middle of the straight once she found clear air. She looks to be in good order, but we have the other two runners. Hard race to bet into.

Last Updated: 9:03am on Saturday, 30th July 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

915x runners | 203x winners (22%) & 253x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.87 WIN $3.12 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
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