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BlackBook - Saturday, 29 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 29 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Traralgon, Race 4

#1 EGYPTIAN ICON (3) - M Huglin

LATE SCRATCHING

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Flemington, Race 4

#8 AS TIME GOES BY (1) - A & S Freedman

Thought she ran well last start at Flemington and has since had a jump out at Mornington on Oct 19 over 1200m where the blinkers went on and she was good there. Third up now and steps up to 2000m with that gear change, she can go well and was happy to be backing her at the $5+.

Rosehill, Race 8

#13 WELWAL (9) - C Waller

This galloper was Dean's selection for The Early Bird last week, in Episode 11.

Last Updated: 7:53am on Saturday, 29th October 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 695x runners | 212x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.16 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1043x runners | 249x winners (24%) & 284x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.03 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 31x runners | 21x wins (68%) & 6x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 50x runners | 7x wins (14%) & 16x placings (46%)

Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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