Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 29 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
#3 ITALIAN POET looked slick as he cruised to the line under no pressure to win Heat 11 on Jan 14. He’s a 5-start maiden with no career placings but he was 2.7L off a BM70 at Flemington at his last start, so there’s certainly some talent there. Only his first jump out back but looks to have returned in good order.
#3 ITALIAN POET travelled well throughout Heat 6 on Jan 21 but was squeezed for room late and couldn’t get a gap, held up and forced to drop back a touch and finish just out of the placings. As mentioned last week, his Jan 14 jump out was encouraging, as was this bit of work so we think we can follow him into his resumption and see where and what price he pops up at.
In only his first jump out back, #5 PENTEGRA showed nice speed to lead and win Heat 5 on Jan 19. This being his third career preparation, they’ve made the decision to geld this 3yo and it may be the deciding factor in really switching him on and getting that debut win on the board. He had the rest of the field covered here, including previous maiden winner Another Engagement in 2nd. Keep an eye out for another jump out, nice bit of work here though.
#9 MAHA’S CHOICE is another nice moving Extreme Choice filly that has now strung together two nice jump outs now. She won a Jan 10 jump out ahead of Zerelle prior to cruising to the line in 2nd in Heat 9 on Jan 17 behind a very speedy Beaukati. She’s jumping out well enough to give a sight first up.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 5
OTHER
#1 FINANCE TYCOON cruised to victory in the fastest time of the morning, taking out Heat 6 on Jan 10.
OUR THOUGHTS
Mornington, Race 3
A Heavy8 track at Mornington throws a few spanners in the work.
PENTEGRA has had one start on the Heavy tracks for one placing - resumes here at the home track off only the one jump out, but it was an impressive one. He also resumes with the key gear change of being gelded. Would've liked to play him here, but resuming on a Heavy track with only the one jump out with barrier 8 of 8 are a few too many queries.
Not sure how MAHA'S CHOICE and ITALIAN POET will handle the Heavy conditions, ITALIAN POET in particular as he will likely get out over further than the 1200m here - in saying that, he looks the class runner of the field.
SONG OF THE NILE is a past BlackBook runner from jump outs back in August 2021. Her jump outs this time in were only fair as she has some barrier issues - she did get to the races after her jump outs last year but was scratched at the gates. She has barrier 7 of 8 here and probably prefer to see her do it on race day first.
DAZZLING LUCY brings in the best last start rating of +1.2 and gets the winkers on.
Going to leave this race due to the weather and the fact that all three of our runners are pretty even but all have some queries - if we're sorting them out, ITALIAN POET on top from PENTEGRA and then MAHA'S CHOICE.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +20.39 units at Recommend Price | +57.57 units at Betfair SP
When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.
PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...