Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 27 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 8
OTHER
Big win by #3 I’M STILL STANDING in Heat 15 on Nov 15, clocking the fastest time of the morning by more than 1.8s in the process. She did have the benefit of race fitness having recently finishing 10th (of 10) in a BM58, but this was an encouraging jump out and you’d think she improves second up now for the new Corstens stable.
CAULFIELD - Race 1
OTHER
#6 EBHAAR was super when winning Heat 5 on Nov 12. Thought her Randwick trial was impressive where she then accepted to run and opened $20+ but was scratched, coming down to VIC to jump out here and do so impressively again. She’s a 2yo I Am Invincible filly that’s a half-sister to the 5yo gelding Shotmaker that was 4.15L off the Blue Diamond back in 2019. Following where she pops up in VIC, guessing the Snowden’s have a target and keen to see where she goes.
CAULFIELD - Race 9
OTHER
Loved the way #10 SINAWANN pulled away over the concluding stages to win Heat 11 on Nov 19 comfortably, albeit with some race fitness having already ran in a Group 3 at Flemington only 2 weeks ago. Keep an eye on him second up as this is only his first Aus campaign.
OUR THOUGHTS
Yarra Valley, Race 1
We had GOOD LIFE DIVA, who has since been scratched, but thought we would leave our analysis notes below anyway (no bets).
MIDWEST is the interesting one. His two first up runs have rated -1.5 and +0.2, but his two second up runs have rated +12.9 and +15.5 where he has been spelled immediately after these. Jumped out behind Pagan (ran 2nd at Pakenham) on Nov 1 and then was okay again on Nov 12. If he runs up to any of his previous two first up runs, he'll be very hard to beat. It looks as though he's resuming gelded here too, which is a key gear change. Daniel Stackhouse also heads to Yarra Valley for two rides and then goes to Caulfield, one being on this gelding.
Think MIDWEST is the one to beat but the market certainly hasn't missed him. Too short to bet, but hard to beat.
Yarra Valley, Race 8 - I'M STILL STANDING
Her first up run was really poor, finishing last. In saying that, she was away slowly and wide throughout but hard to make many real big excuses. Last preparation, all her runs rated between +4.4 and +9.8, which is good enough to be very competitive here and the jump out in between runs was encouraging. She has barrier 4, so can take up a prominent position but if she is slowly away again, then it'll be over quickly.
ULTRA SMART is clearly the one to beat, dropping back from two BM64 runs that rated +4.1 and +5.7. Either of those runs are better than anything else's last start rating in this race.
No bets for us this race, just not enough confidence to be playing.
Caulfield, Race 1 - EBHAAR
Trial in NSW was nice, jump out at Flemington in VIC was super. She looks well placed here but does run into a race fit and in form BRERETON who has done little wrong in his first two career runs and looks well placed to run well again here - has a race fitness edge.
Drawn barrier 9 of 10, which isn't ideal but the booking of D Oliver (who looked to be on in the jump out) is a positive, especially when there are two Godolphin runners in the same race (who he usually rides for).
Apologies, updating this (as at 8:35am) with a medium confidence play. She beat Silvanito in the Flemington JO while MOKO's JO was slow. BRERETON looks the only real big danger but think this filly is quite smart.
Caulfield, Race 9 - SINAWANN
Second Australian start here with Craig Williams jumping on board after James McDonald rode first up. Sticks at 1400m and sticks to the same class (Group 3). Can run well here, but not one for us to play - keep in mind if playing, especially quaddies/exotics.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Caulfield, Race 1
EBHAAR ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $2.90 (TAB at 8:35am)
Overall: +9.36 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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